World Cup 2014: King Louis has the magic touch that can take him to the trophy

Team spirit . . . Tim Krul celebrates with Daley Blind, Stefan de Vrij and Arjen Robben

Holland remain the outsiders of the four teams left in the World Cup. Ralph Ellis argues that makes them the value bet, thanks to the innovative thinking of Louis van Gaal...

Louis van Gaal is not the first manager to come up with the idea of sending on a substitute goalkeeper for a penalty shoot-out. The idea is in fact at least 18 years old.

Turn the clock back to the old Wembley Stadium on May 27th 1996 and Leicester were playing Crystal Palace in what's now the Championship play-off.  As the game ticked into the 120th minute, Martin O'Neill prepared for penalties by taking off his 5ft 9ins goalkeeper Kevin Poole and sending on 6ft 7ins giant Zeljo Kalac.

Poole left the field looking furious. Kalac took his place between the posts looking big and confident. The debate was just beginning about whether it was a master stroke or a piece of lunacy when Steve Claridge scored the winner at the other end, and we never got to find out.

Now I've no idea whether the man who is about to take over as Manchester United manager knew that bit of history to inspire his idea to use Tim Krul for Saturday night's shoot-out against Costa Rica. He almost certainly thought it up himself. But it does show that, just like O'Neil, he has the imagination to do things that might change a football match rather than sit back and be the victim of circumstances.

Thus far it has been a fabulous tournament for Van Gaal.  His first experience of managing his country was a disaster when he failed even to qualify for the 2002 World Cup. But I'm beginning to think this one could end in the ultimate triumph with him lifting the trophy.

Holland are currently the 5.04/1 outsiders of the four countries still fighting for glory, but have as good a chance as any. In Arjen Robben they have a player with the dazzling pace to worry any defence, and with Robin van Persie alongside him they have a proven goalscorer. The two of them might have been shut out by Costa Rica's brilliant goalkeeper Keylor Navas, but that only increases the chances of them scoring next time.

Behind them Wesley Sneijder brings a creativity to his passing that can unlock any side. More amazing, he seems to have found Ron Vlaar's completely reliable and brilliant twin brother to play at centre half as opposed to the inconsistent one that plays for Aston Villa. I'm even tempted by 3.259/4 for a Netherlands clean sheet.

Wednesday's semi-final shapes to be the classic contest between Argentina led by the brilliance of one individual in Lionel Messi, and a Dutch side that has been rebuilt on a team ethic. However Van Gaal's bombastic personality might upset some players, it's clear this squad are right behind him. Coming up with off-the-wall decisions that work, like sending on Krul for the shoot-out, simply builds the players' faith and willingness to follow his orders.

In the other semi Brazil without Neymar look unconvincing, but I think home advantage could still drag them through against Germany and odds against, even if it is only fractionally at 2.021/1, for Luiz Felipe Scolari's side to qualify is excellent value.