Brazil must cope without their talisman Neymar
Hosts Brazil are set to do battle with Germany in the World Cup semi-finals, and a yellow-clad nation expects, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the Europeans will wreck the party in Belo Horizonte...
Brazil v Germany
Tuesday July 8, 21:00
Live on BBC 1
Match Odds: Brazil 2.8815/8, Germany 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Brazil
The hosts are two wins away from their holy grail, a World Cup success on their own shores, a chance to finally set right the bitter failure of 1950. Brazil coach Luis Felipe Scolari says his team has one hand on that glittering trophy, but do the team's performances back up his claims?
Frankly, the answer is no. Brazil have been swept forward on a wave of emotion generated by their fervent supporters, and have done just enough to get to this stage. They underwhelmed against modest opponents in the group phase, squeezed beyond Chile by the narrowest of margins, and then kicked Colombia's James Rodriguez all over the shop in a rather brutal 2-1 win.
That quarter-final against Colombia featured a tournament-high 54 fouls, and although it was Brazil who committed the majority of the misdemeanours (31), they were on the wrong end of the worst one. Juan Zuniga's disgraceful knee to the back of talismanic Brazilian forward Neymar has robbed the tournament of one of its brightest stars. The 22-year-old must now wonder what might have been as he nurses a broken vertebra, and Brazil must wonder how on Earth they replace their top scorer.
Oscar has faded after a bright start, Hulk has got into good scoring positions but is yet to open his account, and Willian has failed to justify the widespread campaigning for his inclusion in the starting 11. Central striker Fred has just one goal to his name (and that looked offside), and he has done very little to augment the Brazilian attack, with Opta telling us he has had just 11 shots in five matches.
Brazil needed two set-pieces to overcome Colombia (although David Luiz' free-kick winner was an absolute stunner), and it's worth considering that just three Brazilian players apart from Neymar have scored from open play.
At the other end of the pitch, Brazil must do without skipper Thiago Silva, who stupidly got himself booked against Colombia. Although Silva is one of the best defenders in the game, his likely replacement Dante is an excellent alternative who has great knowledge of Tuesday's opponents. Dante is the bedrock of the Bayern Munich defence, having previously excelled at Borussia Monchengladbach.
However, Silva's leadership will be missed along with his ability to keep David Luiz in the right position alongside him - with Silva absent, will Luiz lose his discipline?
Germany
As I predicted in my team guide, Germany have reached the World Cup semi-finals for a record fourth time on the trot. Indeed, Jogi Low has now coached the team at four major championships (two World Cups, and both EURO 2008 and EURO 2012), and reached at least this stage in all of them. The challenge now is to finally win a major trophy.
Like Brazil, Germany have often failed to find top gear in this tournament, but there were encouraging signs in their 1-0 quarter-final win over France. The team kept its shape, worked incredibly hard (collectively they ran 7.5 kilometres more than the French) and defended better than they have at any stage in Brazil.
Mats Hummels, who scored the winner with a first-half header, was outstanding defensively, as was his centre-back partner Jerome Boateng. Arsenal's Per Mertesacker may find it tough to force his way back into the side, especially if Low decides to keep skipper Philipp Lahm at right-back.
Lahm gave Germany good width against France, and the midfield triumvirate of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira looked very solid. The only part of the unit that didn't really fire was the attack - Germany managed just three efforts on target, as Miroslav Klose was starved of service on his return to the starting line-up. Low has plenty of ways to pep up the forward line - Mario Gotze, Lukas Podolski and Andre Schurrle are all waiting in the wings, while Thomas Muller could be switched back to a central striking role if Klose is benched.
The mood back in Germany is one of confidence, and it appears Low may finally win over a sceptical media and a public that craves a first World Cup win since 1990. This is a team that showed against France it can work together as a cohesive unit, rather than rely on one superstar.
Although Mertesacker was dropped and Lahm was taken out of his preferred midfield role, there have been no splits in the camp, and no tantrums. Low has no suspension issues or fresh injury concerns. The stage is set.
Match Odds
The market is split down the middle, but I'm leaning towards Germany. Brazil have have made good use of their raucous support, but they will be without their star player, and I wouldn't trust the team to keep its shape in such a febrile atmosphere. It's a clich, but Germany have tactical discipline and a strong work ethic, and that will serve them well.
Although Germany have fallen at this hurdle in 2006, 2010 and 2012, the core of the team seems to be using those painful defeats as motivation. It's also worth considering that the bulk of the team is from Bayern Munich, who have won pretty much everything there is to win in the club game in the past couple of seasons.
It seems strange to say given the national stereotypes, but I actually think there is more flair in the German line-up than there is in Brazil's. Muller's mesmeric movement could be the undoing of David Luiz if he strays out of position, and although Mesut Ozil has yet to make an impact, the latent talent he has is keeping him in the team. Toni Kroos has an eye for a pass worthy of any Brazilian playmaker, while Klose will break Brazilian legend Ronaldo's World Cup Finals goal record if he finds the net.
Germany look chunky at 2.8415/8, but given how tight the knockout phase has been (just two of the 12 ties have been won by more than one goal), I would advise caution. You could back Germany Draw No Bet at 1.981/1, but an even better option is to back them To Qualify at 1.9620/21, which pays out even if the tie goes to extra-time or penalties.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals
The dearth of goals in the knockout phase has seen a shift in the market to prices similar to those on offer in the first set of group games. Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.6213/8, with unders at 1.68/13. In four of their five games so far, Brazil have scored in the first half-hour, while Germany netted early against both Portugal and France. As a Cash Out opportunity, you could back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.6213/8 and hope for another early goal.
To Score
Regular readers will know I'm a huge Thomas Muller fan, and with good reason. He has netted four goals in five World Cup 2014 games, and is chasing the Golden Boot for the second World Cup running (I tipped him at 36.035/1 pre-tournament, he is now 7.413/2). He should have added to his tally against Algeria, and against a patchy Brazilian defence, I think he'll get chances. His price of 3.55n/a to score in 90 minutes is worth a look. Mats Hummels has thumped in headers against France and Portugal, and is 15.014/1.
On the Brazilian side of things, David Luiz is 12.5n/a after his blockbusting free-kick. Oscar will have more responsibility in the absence of Neymar, and is 5.85/1 to score his second goal of the tournament.
First Card
Brazil have committed 94 fouls at this tournament, and have picked up ten yellow cards in five matches. Conversely, Germany have picked up just four cautions, and have committed just 56 fouls.
I expect Germany to have plenty of early possession, and the atmosphere will compel Brazil's players to try to make an early physical impact. Despite having home advantage, I think Brazil are more likely to pick up the first yellow or red card of the match, and 1.84/5 is a decent price.
Recommended Bets
Back Germany To Qualify at 1.9620/21
Back Thomas Muller to score at 3.55n/a
Back Brazil to be shown the first card at 1.84/5
Cash Out Tip
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.6213/8
2014 World Cup P/L
Points Staked: 14
Points Returned: 15.91
P/L: +1.91 points
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