Netherlands v Costa Rica: Dutch to win, but not at the double

Klaas Apart: The Dutch have won 10/11 against Concacaf teams

The favourites should get the job done in 90 minutes, says Tobias Gourlay, but there's a strong trend to suggest that Keylor Navas and pals can keep them at bay for at least a half...

Netherlands v Costa Rica
Saturday July 5 21:00
Live on BBC1

Match Odds

Netherlands are 1.558/15 to banish Concacaf's last remaining representative in 90 minutes and reduce the semi-finals to a face-off between South America and Europe.

Our first thought after watching the Dutch toil - and very nearly run into trouble - in the lunchtime heat of Fortaleza last Sunday was to lay them, but since then Costa Rica have had to go through 120 minutes plus penalties to get past Greece. After playing almost half of that time with 10 men, the Central Americans looked like they had just as much to recover from as the Dutch.

And so, with the Netherlands winning 4/4 in Brazil so far and 13/14 competitive games anywhere since Euro 2012, we're on their side.

There's something from Opta you can add to that: these two teams have never met before, but the Europeans are W10-D1-L0 from their most recent encounters with other Concacaf outfits.

That's a volley of statistics in favour of the Dutch and we will not get in its way.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Since the last World Cup, Costa Rica have helped 28/40 competitive games stay Under 2.5 Goals, which will go off as favourite on Saturday night.

Each side is missing an important defensive player, however: for the Netherlands, Nigel De Jong is ruled out of the tournament with a groin injury; for Costa Rica, centre-half Oscar Duarte serves a suspension for his red card against Greece. With this in mind, consider the 2.26/5 about Over 2.5 Goals, which has been a winner in 19/27 competitive games involving the Dutch.

The Netherlands have scored at least twice in 14/14 since Euro 2012, so the market might well turn on whether Costa Rica can score (a consolation). That's something Los Ticos have done in 8/9 World Cup games against teams from Europe.

Meanwhile, the Dutch haven't kept a clean sheet in any of 11 World Cup knockout matches since a 2-0 win over Ireland in Orlando 20 years ago.

Both Teams to Score?

Keep hold of those last three stats and add one more to them: the Dutch have conceded at least once in 10/12 internationals on foreign soil (excluding a 2-0 win over Andorra).

Choosing to back 'Yes' in this market rather than Over 2.5 Goals means you lose cover for a big Dutch win - 3-0 or 4-0, say. Given Keylor Navas' splendid form in Costa Rica's goal, that is only likely to happen if Los Ticos are forced to chase the game for a long period. 

If you believe the underdogs can stay in touch until half-time or so (see below), you might be prepared to lose that cover in return for a slightly longer price (2.265/4).

Half Time/Full Time

Louis van Gaal's men have been all square at the break in each of their four games so far. Recall that 10 of their 12 goals at Brazil 2014 have come after half-time and that they have gone on to win each of those matches at 90 minutes, and you have the makings of a bet.

Costa Rica have conceded only twice in four games (plus an extra-time) so far. One of those was a penalty, which would normally mean sticking an asterisk next to it and sort of only half counting it as a proper goal, but with Arjen Robben in the Dutch team spot kicks are a serious threat to the Costa Ricans.

So we'll just say that Costa Rica have conceded only twice in four games and their coach, Jorge Luis Pinto, will no doubt give them the primary task of defusing their opponents' explosive attack.

To Score

Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie both failed to score last time out, but recent history is still on their side.

Since Euro 2012, Van Persie has scored in 9/12 competitive appearances for his country, while Robben has notched in 5/7. Back them to level stakes and you will make a small profit if one of them scores (slightly larger if it's Robben) and a big one if they both score their fourth goals of the tournament.

Best Cash Out Opportunity

The last-16 games involving these two were both goalless after 45 minutes. Together, they produced five second-half goals. Backing the Second Half in the Half With Most Goals market is an attractive ante-post option at 2.35/4.

In-play bettors can think about taking an initial position against Over 2.5 Goals, watching it drift as Keylor Navas does his thing in the first half, then getting it onside at a bigger price and greening up around half-time. 

Best Bet
Back Draw/Netherlands @ 4.57/2

Recommended Bets
Say 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score @ 2.265/4
Back Arjen Robben To Score @ 2.68/5 (0.5pts)
Back Robin van Persie To Score @ 2.26/5 (0.5pts)

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 24.59pts
P/L: +10.59pts