World Cup 2014 Perfect Punter: Hopes hinge on Belgium as reality bites

The Perfect Punter's perfect view

The Perfect Punter is still in profit, but as he continues his Brazilian adventure, he's noticed the roamnce of the competition can lead bettors astray...

So the greatest tournament ever, the competition that has breathed life back into the global game, the one in which I was actually showing a four figure profit, has been bitten hard by reality. Maybe I was a fool to believe that Colombia could find a way past Brazil, or that Nigeria would edge out France. Maybe I allowed myself to fall on the wrong side of that most basic gambling relationship, the one between my heart and my head. Did I support Colombia and Nigeria because I THOUGHT that they would win, or because I WANTED them to win? I can only tell you honestly that I'm convinced it's the former. I'm too old to fall for the latter.

So, as the romance has been sucked out, so too has my profit dwindled. Here's a secret that I'll let you into. Before the World Cup started, my idea was always to treat this column as a confidence trick: to get into healthy profit, maybe two thousand ahead, and then pull out of the whole enterprise. I was keen to make the point that you should always know when to stop, and that a profit is a profit whatever you have made it on. You don't need to pick the winner of the World Cup to make money from it. And I got up, I was in profit, and I bottled it.

Now that I've continued to play and paid the price for the odd miscalculation, I have to keep going until the end. I have one outright bet remaining, on the 4.1n/a on the World Cup having a new name on it this year, and I still have Belgium and Holland running for me. The problem is that I have Germany, Brazil and Argentina running against me. History would suggest that there's no chance.

As France, Switzerland and Colombia fell, as Griezmann and Bacca walked away without scoring, and Benzema proved to be a Group Stage bully, as even Switzerland came desperately close, so I have been left clinging to Belgium. They weren't an outright selection, but I invested in the new winner bet because of them, and I'm going in again. I think that they're too big to qualify against a poor Argentine side, that they may have the measure of Holland in their semi final, and that either Germany (preferably) or Brazil could be so emotionally and physically drained by next Sunday's final, that the door may be left open.

Belgium are 2.747/4 to get past Argentina, and 14.5n/a to win the World Cup. Both of those bets could fall today, but both look like prices worth taking, and I believe that if your opinion is sound, and you continue to trust it, then you'll find a way back to profit. That's the only way to react to a poor run anyway. Panic and loss of discipline are sure-fire routes to madness.

Like a Christian finds the cathedral in every city that they visit, I find the racecourse. And I turned up at the splendid Rio version a couple of days ago, was allowed to wander in, nod past a security guard, and roam free. It's spectacular. Glorious grandstands from the turn of the last century, blue-tinged mountains framing a backdrop for the winning post, and, even on a non-raceday, a betting bar which was packed with Carioca versions of any punters you've seen at a bookmakers near you. Eyes hopefully fixed on a big screen, tobacco dripping down their chins, jealous glances, old men with their minds on a future that they know will never exist. I asked a waistcoated barman if the regulars stayed inside on a race night, or headed out to curse more directly at the heavens, and he told me to go to the Grandstand and look at the tables and chairs at the back, the ones with the knockout view.

The cane chairs face each other across a flimsy table, all of them battered and used. The chairs don't face the racetrack, though, the old punters look each other in the eye and argue, before making their minds up, and turning to watch the race. And that's all it is, this betting. Argument, opinion, imrightyourewrong. Take a look at the picture of the chairs and tables at which the Cariocas perch and remember. As long as you're certain enough, then nothing else matters. Betfair is simply you having an opinion, and reaching across that table with a handshake and your hard earned. If you wouldn't be sure enough to argue your case at close range, then don't have a bet. Wait until you can jab your finger and convince the world.

And this is me, after a right hook to the jaw, jabbing my finger in your chest and telling you that I'm right about Belgium. If they lose, then just like the old man in Rio who lingers too long after the last race, then I may have nowhere else to go.

Recommended Bets

Back Belgium To Qualify @ 2.747/4 (285 to win 495.90)

Back Belgium to win the World Cup @ 14.5n/a (40 to win 540)

Profit/Loss on Settled Bets: + 911.00

What is the "Perfect Punter"?

In 2012, The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar was published. Having reached a particular kind of punting meltdown, Dave decided to change his approach to betting and travel to the events that he had lost money on, trying to get closer to them, learn more about them, and turn a loss into a profit.

Dave is back, with his target the World Cup 2014. He’ll be in Rio for the duration of the tournament, and he’ll apply the Perfect Punter philosophy to the World Cup.

Dave has a budget of 100 per day of the World Cup with every bet designed to win 500.