France v Germany: Underrated Bleus look good enough to upset Germany and the odds

France have the attacking threat to trouble Joachim Low's side

After a run of 12 winners from 15 tips on the tournament so far, James Eastham reckons France are the smart bet in the first quarter-final on Friday afternoon...

France v Germany
Friday 4 July, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC1

Match Odds
France 3.39/4, Germany 2.56/4, The Draw 3.39/4

After watching all four Germany and France games at the tournament it's hard to know why Joachim Loew's Germany are favourites to win this match. Have they really played any better than France? They brushed Portugal aside (4-0) in their opening fixture but could only draw against Ghana (2-2) in their second game and nicked victory in a match against the USA (1-0) neither side really needed to win. Algeria then took them to extra-time in a second-round clash that showed up Germany's defensive shortcomings.

France were impressive against Honduras (3-0) and Switzerland (5-2) before getting the point they needed against Ecuador (0-0) to be sure of topping the group. They were pretty mediocre for much of their second-round clash against Nigeria (2-0) but kept another clean sheet and showed their clinical edge by getting the two late goals that won the game.

To me this is a 50-50 game, so at the prices available I'd rather back France. If you wish to have the draw on your side then there are other ways to play (more below).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs 1.738/11, Unders 2.3411/8

After a high-scoring group stage (2.83 goals per game) the average goals count dropped to 1.38 in the second round (90 minutes only). I have a feeling, however, that the goals count will increase during the quarter-final phase - my view is the teams have used the second round to get used to knockout football and will be a little more daring in order to try to claim a place in the last four.

France have good scoring potential and will try to attack the lack of pace at the heart of the German defence. Germany have great attacking variety despite a dearth of natural centre-forwards in their squad. I would be surprised if we see a repeat of Germany's 0-0 (in 90 mins) against Algeria, and just a single goal in 90 minutes would be a surprise, too - but the goal-line looks about right to me. For that reason I'd leave this market alone.

Draw No Bet

If, like me, you think France are underrated, then by all means back them to win the game at 3.39/4. However, it's worth noting that five of the eight second-round fixtures were draws at the end of 90 minutes, so you may want the safety net of getting your money back if this game between well-matched sides ends level after 90 minutes. That's why I prefer France DNB (Draw No Bet) to France to win in 90 minutes. With the DNB selection you'll make a profit if France win and get your money back if the game ends all-square at the end of normal time.

Cash Out Opportunity

One of the features of second-round games was how few goals there were in the first-half (just three in eight matches). Should that trend continue, then backing Under 2.5 Goals before kick-off could offer you cash-out opportunities: a goalless first-half would mean the price on Unders would contract considerably as the game goes along.

Best Bet
France Draw No Bet @ 2.3411/8

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 15pts
Returned: 29.51pts
P/L: +14.51pts