среда, 2 июля 2014 г.

World Cup 2014: A team-by-team guide to the quarter-finals

France rank as a good bet to go all the way

And then there were eight. After a second round of high drama in Brazil, Luke Moore assesses the chances of the eight remaining teams. Brazil are still strong favourites to lift the trophy, but should they be?

Brazil
Odds to win: 4.03/1, Highest traded: 6.611/2

Brazil are still heavily-fancied favourites to be champions at 4.03/1, despite lacklustre performances and disjointed displays relying on Neymar (and to a lesser extent Oscar early on) to bail them out of trouble. This has been enough to see them through an average-ish group and a tough game against Chile which, in truth, could have gone either way, but it's about to get even tougher for the hosts.

Colombia are up next (more on them later) and the whole of Brazil knows that, should they wish to progress to the semi-final, they need to not only find a pair of scoring boots and strap them on Fred or Jo's feet, but also to find the right blend in midfield - something they've not managed yet.

If this is to be their tournament, then the time has come to make a move. But so far Luis Felipe Scolari's men have done nothing of note to warrant such a short price. Avoid.

Argentina
Odds to win: 5.79/2, Highest traded: 8.415/2

If Brazil are relying on Neymar, then their South American neighbours are relying on Lionel Messi. Another fancied team that are yet to register a tournament-defining performance, the Albiceleste have looked at best a little tired and at worst bereft of ideas and cohesion. Against Switzerland they were abject, and it was only a Messi and Angel Di Maria combination in the 118th minute (the first time they linked up effectively all game) that saw them through.

And perhaps more worryingly, rumours have started to swirl that a large number of the playing personnel are unhappy with the setup, and this could be the cause of their apparent listlessness.

Regardless, they're still in the hat, are familiar with the conditions and have a huge and excitable support in Brazil to cheer them on. Belgium should hold no fear for them, and should they be able to put their problems to one side and finally click there's a serious chance of a final appearance.

Germany
Odds to win: 5.85/1, Highest traded: 10.5n/a

It is perhaps baffling why Germany are so short-priced to win this tournament. Portugal game aside they've not really done much yet and, but for some poor finishing, could have been sent home by an exciting Algeria side. What's more, Jogi Loew has picked a seemingly unbalanced squad full of attacking midfielders and short on full backs and pacy, defensive-minded personnel.

That said, a casual glance across their major tournament record quickly realigns the thinking and makes one realise that this is a team that is always there or thereabouts. Last time out Germany were undone by a solitary Sergio Ramos goal in the semi-final against Spain, which won't happen this time, but it's not a huge stretch to imagine them being caught out by a French outfit that have looked far more impressive.

But, a big factor in the thinking around the Germans is that they clearly have, in the shape of Thomas Mueller and Miroslav Klose, two players that can almost guarantee a goal between them, and in the fine margins of knockout football that could well be enough, especially when you can boast the world's best goalkeeper at the other end.

Netherlands
Odds to win: 6.411/2, Highest traded: 65.064/1

This is not a team that were fancied at all before the big kick off, but Netherlands have combined sumptuous, rapid attacking play with a fairly solid (and underrated) defensive backline and now rightly take their place among the top four favourites for glory. In their favour, they have a world-beater in the shape of Arjen Robben and no shortage of attacking options, all managed by a world-class coach.

On the flipside to that, Nigel De Jong's injury is a huge miss and the Oranje struggled to adapt initially to him going off early against Mexico in a game that they really seemed to get out of jail in. There are two ways of assessing that second round tie - Louis van Gaal's men have either already peaked in this tournament (something we've seen from the Dutch before), or they lost an important player early, came up against a very good, athletic Mexican side in the searing heat and still managed to find a way to win.

Netherlands should have far too much for Costa Rica in the quarter-final but mustn't be complacent. Belgium or Argentina lie in wait for them after that, and then we'll really see if this team mean business.

France
Odds to win: 9.417/2, Highest traded: 95.094/1

Of all the odds available on this market, France's price is perhaps the toughest to understand. Les Bleus have arguably been the best side so far this summer and have punctuated headline-grabbing wins (Switzerland, Honduras) with efficient performances that got the job done (Ecuador - in which players were rested, Nigeria). Of course, some pundits will point to the Nigeria game as a below-par outing, but Nigeria are African champions and a good side.

Also in their favour is that France have world class players, harmony in the group and a good pedigree in the World Cup. The manager also knows what it feels like and what is required to lift that famous trophy.

The French are intent on having a huge say this summer, and I have a feeling it'll start with a win over Germany, something they're currently priced at a large-looking 3.259/4 to do. 

Colombia
Odds to win: 14.5n/a, Highest traded: 250.0249/1

If France haven't been the best side at the World Cup this far, then Colombia certainly have. Spearheaded by the excellent James Rodriguez, the Colombians have cast asunder anyone who dared get in their way and have been taken to the hearts of many a neutral over the past two weeks.

They now know, however, that this is where it starts to get tough. Although Brazil haven't hit their straps yet, they're still the best side Jose Pekerman's team will have faced and Los Cafeteros now need to make a decision about whether they stick to their risk-taking, attacking principles or adopt a slightly more conservative policy.

I'd like to see them carry on as they are, because I think they can overcome Brazil and go all the way, largely due to the hosts' weakness in front of the back four - the area that Rodriguez does all his damage in. I also have a feeling that this is a team that cares little for reputations and won't be overawed by the gravity of playing the hosts.

As with France, 14.5n/a is a rude price for the form team in the tournament, and well worth backing.

Belgium
Odds to win: 14.5n/a, Highest traded: 200.0199/1

Backed into fifth favourites on the eve of the big kick off, Belgium have so far done just enough and no more. But they're still in there, still fighting, and came up with the goods when it counted against a plucky USA. Their strengths lie in their individuals and the options they have from the bench when things aren't going well.

Their weaknesses lie in their relative inexperience in international tournament play and the feeling that Marc Wilmots doesn't really know his best side, largely due to his struggle to get them playing as a team. Although the Belgians made it through their second round game with a huge number of shots on the USA goal, there was still a feeling that the Americans knew their roles within their team dynamic far more clearly, and this is something Wilmots needs to impress upon his charges.

They have a chance against Argentina, but at the same price as Colombia to lift the trophy, I know who I'd rather back.

Costa Rica
Odds to win: 80.079/1, Highest traded: 1000.0n/a

Undoubtedly the surprise package of the summer, Costa Rica showed incredible resilience and to get through on penalties against Greece after going down to ten men and having Joel Campbell essentially hobbling around on one leg for most of extra time. What was great about that performance was it showed that this was a side that can mix it physically and psychologically as well as play with flair and dynamism as they showed against Italy but more pertinently Uruguay in the group stage.

In truth, a game against Netherlands is likely to be beyond Jose Luis Pinto's men who will be battered, bruised and dog-tired after that Greek triumph, but a quarter-final berth is far beyond what anyone expected going into this tournament and if you fancy the dream to continue, Bryan Ruiz and company are currently 8.27/1 to cause another shock and beat van Gaal's men.

Recommended Bets
Back France to win the World Cup at 9.417/2
Back Colombia to win the World Cup at 14.5n/a

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