Against All Odds: Defending champs to rack up the goals

Can anybody stop Cruzeiro?

Following five winners from five selections in Brazil on Wednesday, Paul Robinson returns to the scene of the crime for today's Against All Odds as he feels that the goals will flow when Cruzeiro host Vitoria BA.

Cruzeiro v Vitoria BA
Friday July 18, 01:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Cruzeiro have made an excellent start to the defence of their Campeonato title as they're already top of the league and have a game in hand over nearly all of their rivals. They may have leaked 10 goals in nine matches, but they've banged in 18 at the other end and last year's success was also built on attacking play as opposed to defending.

Marcelo Oliveira's side have had six of their nine fixtures go over 2.5 goals this season and that has led to their matches having an average of 3.11 goals per 90 minutes - the highest in the entire division. While only one of their four in front of their own fans has gone over 3.5, the one that did featured five goals and their 3-0 victory against Flamengo only narrowly missed out.

Vitoria BA have made a miserable start to their campaign as after just failing to qualifying for the Copa Libertadores last term, they find themselves in the relegation zone this time around. It's still early days of course, but they seem to be missing the leadership of Ney Franco since his deflection to Flamengo.

Jorginho has taken the reigns and the Salvadoran based team come into this match on a six game winless run. It is worth noting though that they haven't lost any of their last four away fixtures and they managed to score at least once in three of them.

This should be a relatively easy win for Cruzeiro but I can definitely see Vitoria grabbing a goal. Therefore with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.491/2 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Cruzeiro v Vitoria BA @ 1.491/2 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 188 pts
Returned: 199.43 pts
P/L: + 11.43 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)