Tottenham v Arsenal: Go low on goals in derby that could go either way

If Spurs get it right, then there is huge value in backing the home side this weekend.

Jaymes Monte previews this Saturday's North London derby in what could be a telling fixture in the battle for a top four finish this season...

Tottenham v Arsenal
Saturday February 7, 12:45pm
BT Sport 1

Tottenham

I can only presume, but being a Tottenham fan must make for a frustrating existence; particularly this season. One week they can take Chelsea apart and put five past the champions elect. The next they are losing at Crystal Palace.

Early season blemishes often came on weekends following Europa League action and we have definitely seen a marked improvement in league form since the middle of December. The aforementioned loss at Palace is Spurs' only defeat in their last nine Premier League games, with six wins also coming in that period. Mauricio Pochettino has perhaps now found that magic formula; although with Spurs there is always the feeling that another slip up is just around the corner.

Nevertheless, this is certainly a Spurs side that are genuine top-four challengers this season. Although one must ponder whether Pochettino's success owes some gratitude to good fortune. Harry Kane undoubtedly wasn't part of the plan set out in pre-season and without his 20 goals this season The Lilywhites would be nothing more than mid-table fodder.

Spurs have the luxury of a fully fit squad to choose from this weekend with Nabil Bentaleb returning to domestic action following his participation in the Africa Cup of Nations with Algeria.

Arsenal

Frustration is clearly not an emotion that is exclusive to North Londoners that watch their football at White Hart Lane. A recent run of five consecutive comfortable wins, four of which have come without conceding a goal, highlight just how good Arsenal can be when things are going well.

Particularly pleasing to watch will have been the manner of the recent victory at Manchester City where, for once, Arsene Wenger appeared to abandon some of his infamously stubborn principles in exchange for the greater good of all three points; something of a rarity for the Gunners against fellow top-four teams away from home.

The question yet to be answered is whether he will be willing to do something similar on a more regular occasion.

Danny Welbeck is expected to return from a thigh injury that has kept him out of action since the turn of the year, but there are serious doubts regarding the fitness of Alexis Sanchez who missed last weekend's demolition of Aston Villa with a hamstring problem.

Match Odds

Considering home advantage - Spurs have lost only one of the last four North London derbies at the Lane - and comparable recent form lines between the two teams it is somewhat surprising to see Arsenal made short 2.35/4 favourites and the home side way out at 3.412/5.

Just two points separate the sides in the Premier League table and Spurs have already beaten Chelsea and Southampton and drawn with Manchester United at home this season. Although Arsenal were impressive against Manchester City at the Etihad a couple of weeks ago it's a little too soon to assume that will now be the status quo for Wenger's side. Take the very generous 3.412/5 about Spurs earning all three points and moving above their rivals in the Premier League table.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

After a prolonged period when North London derbies almost guaranteed a glut of goals, recent battles have been considerably more sedate in that respect. Each of the last four meetings have produced fewer than three goals, with only one of the two teams scoring in three of those games.

High-scoring games tend to live considerably longer in the memory than those with fewer goals and that is perhaps part of the reason why Under 2.5 Goals is made the outsider of the two selections here at odds of 2.35/4. Certainly when also considering Arsenal's recent defensive record - not forgetting that Spurs also kept a clean sheet last weekend - then the value is in backing another tight game with few goals.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35/4
1pt Back Spurs to win @ 3.412/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 66.0 pts
Returned: 68.85 pts
P/L: +2.85 pts