среда, 4 февраля 2015 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Nap Napoli with Inter in town

Rafa Benitez will be all smiles later on this evening

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Napoli (HOME) @ 1.75 (3/4) - Live on Sky Sports 5 at 19:45 GMT

This is the last quarter-final tie in the Coppa Italia and Napoli will fancy their chances of joining Lazio, Juventus and Fiorentina in the semis. 

Rafa Benitez's side come into this match having won their last four in a row and while they needed penalty kick to dispose of Udinese during that period, they also won at the high-flying, Lazio.

Gli Azzurri have only been beaten on home soil once this term and that was by Juventus. Inter on the other hand have already lost five times on the road this season and they come into this fixture without a win in three, with their most recent offering being a poor 3-1 defeat at Sassuolo.

Bet 2: Liverpool (AWAY) @ 1.53 (8/15) - Live on BBC 1 at 19:45 GMT

The deadlock wasn't broken in 90 minutes of football at Anfield in the original match of this tie but Liverpool dominated and I expect them to negotiate their way through a tricky trip to the Macron Stadium and into the next round of the FA Cup.

If we ignore the extra time defeat at Stamford Bridge - the score was 0-0 at full time - then Brendan Rodgers' men haven't lost since the middle of December. That's a run of a dozen games and there is no denying that last year's Premier League runners-up are definitely improving after a slow start.

Bolton are also improving after a poor beginning to their campaign but results have dried up a touch in recent weeks. Neil Lennon's players have tasted victory on only two occasions from seven attempts and they were held at home by Wolves on Saturday.

Bet 3: Real Madrid v Sevilla (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.36 (4/11) - Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 GMT

It's top v fourth in La Liga this evening as Real Madrid and Sevilla play their game in hand, and I can't see anything other than goals.

Real Madrid have scored 68 and conceded 17 so far this year to give their league fixtures an average of 4.25 goals each time. Over 2.5 backers would have been rewarded 18 times out of 20 and the two that missed out only did so by a single goal.

Sevilla aren't quite as prolific but their stats are still well in our favour. They have found the net 34 times and conceded 22, which means their games are averaging 2.8 goals per 90 minutes.

Bet 4: Monaco v Bastia (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Live on BT Sport 1 at 20:00 GMT

This is the second semi-final of the Coupe de la Ligue with the victor meeting PSG in the final. 

Monaco haven't exactly lived up to the promise of success since they were taken over and invested in heavily. They are only fifth in the league - seven points adrift of third place. 

It's the goal stats we're interested in here though and quite incredibly, their last 15 in a row have all finished with two goals or fewer. Leonardo Jardim's side have kept eight clean sheets in a row, but during that period, they only scored more than once on three occasions.

Bastia are down in 16th place in the league but they haven't been beaten during normal time since the start of December. They come into this match with their last four fixtures all going under 2.5 goals and they haven't scored more than once on the road in any game this season.

Recommended Multiple

Back Napoli @ 1.75 (3/4);
Back Liverpool @ 1.53 (8/15);
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Sevilla @ 1.36 (4/11);
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Monaco v Bastia @ 1.5 (1/2);

The Multiple pays approximately 5.46 (9/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 4 pts
Returned: 16.92 pts
P/L: + 12.92 pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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