Serie A Betting: Lay the big clubs

If it weren’t for Jeremy Menez, Milan may well be in the relegation battle with Parma

Dave Farrar predicts Milan and Fiorentina are due upsets against Parma and Genoa, while Palermo are picked again...

Milan v Parma
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Milan have lost their last three games in all competitions, their last two at home in Serie A, and the Rossoneri season simply lurches from crisis to crisis.

They were knocked out of the Cup by 10-man Lazio in midweek and apparently Pippo Inzaghi is on the brink of the sack. Not that the mess is his fault, it goes way higher than him.

Anyway, Milan's internal politics aren't what concern us here, rather the outcome of Sunday night's game against bottom of the table Parma.

With Sassuolo and Atalanta having recently won at San Siro, the mystique has evaporated from the famous old stadium, and Parma will have no fear at all as they try to kick-start their season.

Parma are looking to avoid a record breaking eighth consecutive away defeat, and there were signs in their Cup defeat by Juve in midweek that they might be getting somewhere.

They were the better side for long periods, and while you might argue that it was against a Juve second string, the team put out by Max Allegri was a lot better than anything Milan currently have to offer.

Goalscoring is Parma's problem, and it's the fact that they have scored only 5 in their last 10 matches that stops me from taking the 7.26/1 about an away win here.

Anyone who has watched Milan lately, though, will know just how awful they are. Shorn of confidence, lacking a leader, falling apart at the seams. If it wasn't for Jeremy Menez, then they could even be in the relegation zone themselves.

Right now, the Rossoneri shouldn't be 1.68/13 to beat anybody, and I'll happily lay them at that price here, for all Parma's problems.

Add in that Philippe Mexes begins a four-match ban, while Giacomo Bonaventura, Stephan El Shaarawy, Daniele Bonera, Cristian Zapata, Mattia De Sciglio and possibly also Nigel de Jong are on the treatment table.

Recommended Bet
Lay Milan against Parma @ 1.68/13

Genoa v Fiorentina
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Towards the tail end of last year, Genoa were looking like European contenders, but a woeful run of form has seen them sink like a stone, and with Fiorentina as short as 2.265/4 to win at Marassi this weekend, it would seem that Gian Piero Gasperini's troubles are set to continue.

Genoa played well in Naples last week, though, and were certainly unfortunate to lose, and with the on loan Spurs man Iago Falque starting to look like a player, I feel that they can get something here against an improving yet inconsistent Fiorentina team who will be without the influential David Pizarro for this one.

La Viola have won four of their last five away from home, and seem to play better on the road than they do at the Artemio Franchi. They'll be buoyed by the return to form of Mario Gomez, although possibly unsettled by the imminent departure of Juan Cuadrado.

Alberto Gilardino was signed this week, and obviously the stage would seem to be set for him to score against his former club, but I'm not so sure that Fiorentina will have it all their own way here and am keen to oppose them, largely on the basis that their results lately have flattered to deceive.

I toyed with the idea of backing Genoa at 3.613/5, but think that the draw is a big player here, and so will lay Fiorentina at a price which is an overreaction to their recent good form, and therefore too short.

Recommended Bet
Lay Fiorentina against Genoa @ 2.265/4

Palermo v Verona
Sunday, 14:00

It's a pretty uninspiring weekend in Serie A elsewhere, with Lazio, Napoli and Juve all having comfortable away games, Roma rightly short to beat Empoli at home, and Atalanta and Cagliari impossible to predict.

I'm tempted to back Sassuolo to beat Inter at 3.3512/5, but fear that they have gone off the boil a little bit lately, and with the prices in Torino versus Sampdoria looking just about right, we're back with our old favourites Palermo.

The men in pink have been good to this column this season, and even though they've won only one of their last seven against Verona in Serie A, I'm keen to support them here.

They have one of the best strike forces around in the shape of Paulo Dybala and Franco Vazquez, and with Verona conceding more shots on target this season than any other team in Serie A, you get the feeling that the visitors may just struggle to contain Palermo at a red hot Renzo Barbera.

I'd say 1.845/6 is more than a fair price about the home win, and so Palermo complete the portfolio for this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Back Palermo to beat Verona @ 1.845/6

2014-15 P/L

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 59.66pts
P/L: -0.34pts