ATP Zagreb Indoors Betting: Confident Seppi can land the title in Croatia

Will Andreas Seppi be celebrating again on Sunday in Zagreb?

ATP World Tour tennis returns this week, with tournaments on clay and indoor hard and Sean Calvert likes the chances of an Italian in Zagreb...

The ATP World Tour moves swiftly on from Melbourne in week five, with three ATP 250 events in Croatia, France and Ecuador.

The latter event - the Ecuador Open Quito is a new clay court event on the Golden Swing and it replaces the Vina Del Mar tournament for the first time for 2015.

It represents the first clay court action of the season and it's attracted the likes of Feli Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, and Santi Giraldo to its inaugural edition hosted in the highest altitude capital city in the world.

That will presumably mean quick conditions, with balls flying about if not properly controlled, and with the likes of Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci and Martin Klizan in the draw it could be an interesting week in Ecuador.

As far as betting is concerned in that one it might pay to side with a long shot, with Horacio Zeballos an interesting contender at 34.033/1, having won the Quito Challenger here in the past.

Victor Estrella Burgos has also won the Quito Challenger, as has Joao Souza and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone like Alejandro Falla bounce back to form out of nowhere in these conditions.

In short, that one looks wide open, but my bet this week takes place elsewhere in week five.

In Croatia they play indoors on a quickish surface at the PBZ Zagreb Indoors, where they're without their big draw of Marin Cilic, who has withdrawn with a continuing shoulder issue and also reportedly may miss out in Rotterdam and Delray Beach too.

This event has been won by Croatians in five of the last six years, but it's never been a happy hunting ground for top seed Ivo Karlovic, who has never been past the quarter finals here in nine tries going back to 2006.

Karlovic passed the 9,000 career aces mark in the Australian swing of the tour, but he looks worth opposing based on his record here and perhaps a better Croatian hope could be young Borna Coric.

Zagreb-born and raised Coric is yet to win a match in the main draw at his home event, but the 18-year-old is sure to be giving it his all and after losing early in Melbourne he's sure to have been practicing a lot for this.

But the bottom half of the draw looks the place for a bet rather than the top, with Adrian Mannarino and Gilles Muller the highest seeds in that half of the draw and both look tight in price.

After making the Auckland final Mannarino rocketed up to a career high 36 in the world rankings, but his Australasia adventures came to a painful end when he had to retire in Melbourne after leading Lopez 6-4, 6-4, 4-0 at one stage.

The Frenchman was unable to stand up and was treated with morphine after the match, but he should be fine now and should go well again with a kind draw, but I prefer the chances of 11.010/1 shot Andreas Seppi.

The Italian should be in good spirits after beating Roger Federer in Melbourne, but rather typically he lost from two sets up and match point up in the very next round to Nick Kyrgios.

The quick surface in Melbourne allowed Seppi's forehand to become more potent, along with his serve, which has become much more of a weapon in 2015, and he should find similar conditions here in Zagreb.

The draw looks kind, with an out of form Robin Haase first up and there's no reason why Seppi can't beat the likes of James Ward, Ricardas Berankis, Lukas Lacko, and Muller to reach the last four.

Then it would be one of Mannarino, Marcel Granollers, Ivan Dodig, Igor Sijsling, or Jurgen Melzer for a place in the final, which seems pretty reasonable to me for the 11.010/1 shot.

Seppi has very good records over Dodig and Muller and the Italian can carry his good form over from Australia to this tournament.

Over in Montpellier, the Open Sud de France is played on a pacy Greenset surface, which has been highly spoken of by the likes of Nicolas Mahut, and it's been won in three of the last four times by Frenchman.

Gael Monfils is the defending champion here and Lamonf also won it in 2010, while Richard Gasquet was successful here in 2013, but both are drawn in the same half of the draw this year.

The conditions here offer something for attackers and defenders, but it looks a really trappy betting heat, with perhaps Jerzy Janowicz a reasonable choice at 11.010/1, but I can't trust the Pole not to throw in a shocker.

If Lucas Pouille continues his recent form the level he showed in Melbourne would be good enough to win this, but he will have to face Gasquet in round two and he's probably more one to watch just now.

Philipp Kohlschreiber could go well, but he's very hard to win with at single figure prices most weeks and he hasn't won a title outside of Germany since 2008 and I'll stick with just the one wager this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Seppi to win Zagreb at 11.010/1