League One Betting: Keep it simple by backing the Iron again

Hopefully backing the Iron works again

Alan Dudman got the MK Dons horribly wrong last week, but got Scunthorpe right - and he's sticking with the same formula as Mark Robins' side again look overpriced in a host of League One tips this weekend.....

Scunthorpe United 2.829/5 v Oldham Athletic 2.588/5, the draw 3.505/2 

Only four points stand between Scunthorpe and Oldham, and I cannot resist again siding with the in-form Iron this weekend. I stated the case to back them for the recent clash at Orient, and they duly delivered 4-1 (although the less said about the MK Dons lay the better). Nonetheless, we have a chance again to take a good price on a team that are showing play-off form. 

Under Mark Robins, United have picked up 25 points since October. That's just two losses in 14 games (and one of those came at the hands of Bristol City - and they played well). 

Saturday's success at Orient was a thing of beauty, Robins described it as a 'brilliant' away performance. But it highlighted again how hard his players work, and they win games with moments of quality. Also with Scunny we can draw comparisons to AC Milan legend Filippo Inzaghi; as no other team has been caught offside more (according to Opta stats) than United (87). 

Meanwhile the Iron added Peter Crouch lookalike Kevin van Veen from Holland this week, whilst Manchester City midfielder George Evans has joined too. Although we all know scoring goals in the Dutch leagues are equivalent to 'dog years'. 

The basis of the bet here is that I think the hosts can score (and have in eight of their previous ten), whereas Oldham have kept only two clean sheets from their last eight. Away from home, the Latics have lost four times in seven (winning only twice). They are too inconsistent to be considered against a bang in-form Iron. The market looks wrong here, and if you are laying Oldham, they ought to be nearer 3.02/1. 

Recommended Bets
Back Scunthorpe United to win @ 2.829/5
Back Oldham clean sheet 'no' @ 1.855/6

Rochdale 2.1011/10 v Leyton Orient 3.6013/5, the draw 3.505/2

I'll start with a negative, and Orient manager Fabio Liverani's comments in the aftermath of the 4-1 defeat at home on Saturday. The Italian accused his players of moaning, and has subsequently cancelled days off in the week. The O's boss was right in questioning his men, as four managers have had a go at this job this season with no success,  and it's clear the selected ones on the pitch are not doing it. 

These comments hardly ever have the desired effect. Footballers aren't (in the most part) interested in basic 'fire them up' tactics with criticism and reverse psychology. The boss will always get the chop before the players, and something is clearly not working at Brisbane Road. 

To add insult, Orient's Italian owners have launched a reality show back home, involving the London club. OK you might think, nothing new. However, their trailer on youtube involves some of the worst miming I have seen since Paul Weller's intentional mime on Top Of The Pops in the 1980's. Truly awful. 

The Londoners are still in the bottom two, dragging around a disorganised defence and no goal threat. They ought to be nearer 4.804/1 on the market, so there will be a layer out there that will take them on. 

But I want to stick with Rochdale, who I tipped last weekend at Coventry. It's a pity the Sky Blues found their scoring boots for once, but the Dale scored twice and so posses much more of a threat going forward  than the O's - who according to Opta; have gained only one victory from their last seven away games (losing five). 

The hosts can dominate the midfield here, and considering they are just a point behind the play-offs, I think their price is quite a good one. 

Recommended Bet
Back Rochdale to win @ 2.1011/10

Port Vale 3.02/1 v Bradford City 2.546/4, the draw 3.505/2

Bradford are priced up here on their FA Cup exploits, and it seems the solid home form of Port Vale has been ignored. 

Of course if you were chalking up odds on City's Chelsea win, they should be shorter, but third and fourth tier teams have a nasty habit of raising their game for the Premier League outfits, and can get nowhere near that level on a consistent basis in their domestic campaign. Lower league players can play on a par with illustrious opponents for one -off ties - they just cannot sustain it or perform to that level every week. 

For example; Cambridge excelled in the home leg of their 0-0 FA Cup stalemate recently with Manchester United, and yet are hardly flying in their league. And I just cannot get excited about Bradford's price - even more so considering they have a game on Monday with the MK Dons, and will start a frenzied run of fixtures from now until March. 

I probably made a mistake in tipping Vale to beat Crewe at home two weeks ago - purely on price as they were 1.9210/11. Saturday's odds are more like it, and I do believe they are a solid mid-table side who will fall short of the play-offs. But the Valiants are good at home, which is why I want to back them. They have won six of their last nine (losing twice) on their own patch, and they do like to start off fast in a game. 

I have to forgive the blip that was the 2-1 defeat to Barnsley on Saturday, but that's easy to do, as you get no consistency overall with League One's mid-table sides. But we are armed with strong Opta stats here in our favour, as historically Bradford have a terrible record against Port Vale; winning once in 12 previous attempts. Plus the hosts are unbeaten in five at Vale Park with the Bantams (winning four). 

Recommended Bet
Back Port Vale to win @ 3.02/1

Notts County 3.3512/5 v Chesterfield 2.3411/8, the draw 3.6013/5

Notts County are in freefall at the moment, and their earlier season form has deserted them. The Magpies have lost seven of their last 11 matches and have recorded just one victory in that time. Manager Shaun Derry has spoken of the need for them to get back to being 'hard to beat' as they are giving away too many soft goals. 

Defensive errors are costing them certainly, but they have also had an influx of new players since January that are taking time to bed in. 

Chesterfield are a top five side that were busy on transfer deadline day. Mark Duffy (Birmingham), Caolan Lavery (Sheffield Wednesday) and Ashley Carter (Wolves) all arrived, but their prized asset of Eoin Doyle has left for Cardiff in a reported 1million deal. Doyle had smashed his way to the scoring charts with 25 this term, so he'll be a major loss. 

The Spirerites haven't been winning too many away from home, and have netted just one success from 11 on their travels. This might be the sort of game to trade the draw, as without Doyle, Chesterfield will miss a large chunk of their goals. 

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.6013/5

League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)

- 4.08 pts