Against All Odds: Estudiantes to give a masterclass in defending

Can Estudiantes make a splash in this year's Libertadores?

With two Copa Libertadores winners in a row, Paul Robinson stays in South America's version of the Champions League tonight as he thinks that Independiente's clash with Estudiantes will be low-scoring.

Independiente del Valle v Estudiantes
Friday February 6, 01:00 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video 

Ecuador's Independiente had a decent showing in this competition last season as while they exited in the group stage, they picked up eight points from a possible 18 and only missed out on goal difference. 

Pablo Repetto's side were free-scoring during that period as with 10 for and the same against, their matches averaged over three goals each time. This is a two legged tie though and that makes things a lot edgier - especially with so much on the line. I would also point out that more recently, five of their last nine outings would have rewarded over 1.5 goal layers.

Estudiantes travel over to Ecuador from Argentina as they make their first Libertadores appearance since 2011. Their recent domestic success has been built on a sound defence and I expect them to carry that over into continental competition. 

During last season, Mauricio Pellegrino's men saw eight of their 19 outings finish with one goal or under and in the season before that, their fixtures only averaged 1.63 goals per 90 minutes, as 11 of the 19 ended with under 1.5 goals.

There is no doubt in my mind that the Argentinian outfit will be there to solely defend tonight. There's quite a good chance that they'll earn a clean sheet as well, so with over 1.5 goals trading at around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.          

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Independiente v Estudiantes @ 1.574/7

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 34 pts
Returned: 27.07 pts
P/L: - 6.93 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)