Football Bet of the Day: Nothing can bail out Greek hosts

Greece is our football focus today

It's 2/3 winners for Kevin Hatchard this week, and he's looking for another one in Greece this evening...

Panthrakikos v Kalloni
Thursday February 5, 17:30

While commentating on Borussia Dortmund's feeble home defeat to Augsburg last night, I probably sounded a bit too excited as I relayed news of Hoffenheim's equaliser against Werder Bremen. The reason was that Ermin Bicakcic's goal landed our Over 1.5 First Half Goals bet, and got us into profit for the week.

Many of the South American leagues are only just starting, so we'll stay in Europe for now, and today we're taking in a Greek Super League encounter between household names Panthrakikos and AEL Kalloni.

Panthrakikos, or the Crocodiles if you prefer, are just a point above the relegation zone. They are atrocious away from home, with just three points collected from 11 games. Conversely, they are unbeaten at their OPAP-Municipal Komotini Stadium.

Although an unbeaten home record at this stage of the season sounds impressive, Panthrakikos (not, sadly, named after Panthro from Thundercats) have actually won just four of their ten home matches. They keep things uncomfortably tight (like my T-shirts, an unkind observer might say), and all ten of their home games have featured two goals or fewer, which is why Under 2.5 Goals is trading at a skinny 1.558/15.

Kalloni have won just once in 11 road matches, but they tend to dig in on their travels, with just four defeats suffered. They have drawn four of their last five away games, with the only defeat coming at title-chasing Panathinaikos. Kalloni are tenth in the standings, six points and four places better off than this evening's opponents.

Although Kalloni have the worst attack in the league (17 goals scored), they have a better defensive record than five of the league's top eight teams, with just 19 goals leaked in 21 games. When the reverse fixture was played in September, Kalloni ran out 2-0 winners, and they have won two of the clubs' last three meetings.

It strikes me that 1.715/7 is too short for the home win. Panthrakikos have won fewer than half of their home games, and none of those four victories came by more than a single goal. Kalloni are tough to beat on the road, and they've only lost three of their last ten league games. I think we can lay the hosts.

Recommended Bet
Lay Panthrakikos at 1.715/7

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 17

Points Returned: 15.19

P/L: -1.81 points