Football Bet of the Day: German goals are on the menu when Werder come to town

Franco Di Santo is scoring goals...and walking like an Egyptian

After the kind of setback that makes you want to throw things through windows, Kevin Hatchard has calmed himself down, and is taking us to Germany in search of goals and profit.

Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen
Wednesday Feburary 4, 19:00

It was a frustrating night for both us and Alex McLeish's Genk, as the Belgians were held to a 1-1 draw by lowly KV Oostende. Genk hit the bar twice and missed a penalty, and there was a goalkeeping masterclass from Oostende stopper Didier Ovono. The Belgian hot chocolate tastes bitter this morning.

To Germany then, and a Bundesliga showdown between Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen, two teams who often struggle defensively. We're hoping they will leak a few goals tonight.

Hoffenheim have been well clear of the relegation dogfight all season, and European qualification is a realistic prospect. Hoffe held onto attacking stars Roberto Firmino and Kevin Volland in the summer, and the signings of keeper Oliver Baumann and centre-back Ermin Bicakcic have proved to be astute moves. 

Hoffe were a touch unfortunate at the weekend, as they lost a snow-covered encounter 3-1 at Augsburg. Markus Gisdol's men came desperately close to an equaliser at the death, only for ex-Arsenal stopper Alex Manninger to make a fine save. The barrel-chested Raul Bobadilla then scored the clincher at the other end. 

What the game did show is that Hoffenheim's defending has continued to decline since a solid start to the season. In their first nine games of the campaign they leaked just seven goals, but in the last nine they have shipped 21. Old habits die hard, it seems.

Werder Bremen have got their act together at home since their former defender Viktor Skripnik took the coaching reins, and their 2-0 win over Hertha Berlin on Sunday lifted them up to 12th in the standings. However, Skripnik hasn't been able to solve his side's defensive problems on the road. SVW have conceded an eye-watering 29 goals in nine away games, more than any other team in the Bundesliga.

Both defences are suspect, and both sides have dangerous offensive players. Werder's Franco Di Santo scored twice at the weekend, and has netted eight goals in 12 games. I once described Di Santo during a commentary as "looking like he'd won a raffle to play in the Premier League" as he ambled about ineffectively for Wigan - he scored a 20-yard stunner about five minutes later. The commentator's curse is strong in this one.

You could go for Over 3.5 Goals at 2.1211/10, which has paid out in seven of Hoffenheim's last nine matches, and four of Werder's last six. I'm plumping for Over 1.5 First Half Goals instead at 2.1411/10. That bet has been successful in seven of Werder's last eight away games, and six of Hoffe's last nine league matches. I just think one of these teams might try to shut things down in the second half if they make a fast start, but both bets are decent prospects.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.1411/10

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 16

Points Returned: 13.05

P/L: -2.95 points