Championship Betting: Back Derby to win battle of the league leaders

Steve McClaren's Derby are fancied to win at Dean Court

The top two in the table meet on Tuesday night and Mike Norman believes Derby are the team to side with at a decent price. Here our man recommends three wagers from the midweek Championship fixtures...

Bournemouth 2.26/5 v Derby 3.613/5; The Draw 3.613/5

Although I'm not particularly strong on a selection in this match, it would almost be negligent of me to fail to give it a mention.

Bournemouth v Derby is of course top against second top, the highest scoring side in the Championship against the third highest scoring side, and rightly so it's been billed as the Championship game of the season so far.

Form wise there's practically nothing to split them - from their last 10 league outings Eddie Howe's men have won eight and lost two; Steve McClaren's men have fared just slightly worse, winning seven, drawing one, and losing the other two. But it's 24 points taken for the Cherries and 22 collected for the Rams. In other words, both teams are in fine promotion-chasing form.

If you're looking for an angle into a wager then you can perhaps say that Bournemouth are more prolific away from home - in the last three months they've scored eight at Birmingham, six at Blackpool, five at Rotherham, and three at Wigan for example.

That's not to say their home form is poor but the fact remains that the league leaders have failed to win three of their last six Championship games at Dean Court, losing to Norwich and 'only' drawing with struggling Millwall in that sequence.

Derby have won eight of their last nine games in all competitions including their last three away from home, all without conceding a single goal.

The safe bet is probably to trade the draw, but we won't be able to back the Rams at this price again all season, certainly not when they're in the form they are in at present, so an away win is the tentative selection in what should be a great game.

Recommended Bet
Back Derby to Win @ 3.613/5

Birmingham 2.0421/20 v Millwall 4.216/5; The Draw 3.613/5

After a stunning start to his managerial stint at Birmingham, Gary Rowett has now overseen five games without a win. But that's nothing to be disappointed with; the Blues drew four of those five matches with their only defeat coming in the FA Cup at the hands of Premier League outfit West Brom.

Rowett's men sit 11th in the table so they've still got a slim chance of challenging for a play-off place, though they'll need to go on a very good run from here, starting with victory over Millwall on Tuesday night.

Since Rowett took charge Birmingham have won similar games against struggling teams like Rotherham, Nottm Forest, Huddersfield, and Wigan, but the Lions arguably represent the easiest task of all those sides.

Ian Holloway's men are in desperate trouble; 22nd in the table, six defeats from their last eight league matches, and just two wins since October. Despite Saturday's opponents Huddersfield being down to 10 men for the last 40 minutes of their league clash, Holloway's men still conceded two goals and lost yet again on home soil.

Birmingham have become a consistent team of late, and they've finally put to bed that dreadful form they were showing at St Andrew's. Even money about a home win looks a solid investment.

Recommended Bet
Back Birmingham to Win @ 2.0421/20

Ipswich 2.0421/20 v Sheff Wed 4.216/5; The Draw 3.55/2

Ipswich have slipped to fifth in the table following a run of just one win in their last five league matches but they have hardly become a terrible team overnight. A month ago the Tractor Boys would have been 1.75/7 to win this match, so at just above even money I believe they rate nap material.

True, Mick McCarthy's men haven't been in great form of late - away defeats at Brighton and Rotherham were disappointing - but the fact remains their only league loss at Portman Road since August was to title-chasing Derby.

In fact McCarthy's men have lost on home soil just twice all season, to Derby and fierce rivals Norwich.

At first glance the Owls have been doing ok of late, three wins from their last seven matches, but take a closer look at it's actually just three wins from their last 10 league and cup outings with each of their victories coming against struggling or massively out of form sides - Blackpool, Wigan, and Forest.

Stuart Gray's men struggle for goals generally and my thinking is that just one or two for Ipswich will be enough to take all three points from this encounter. And when you have the likes of David McGoldrick and Daryl Murphy in your team then the home side have every chance of hitting the back of the net a few times.

Recommended Bet
Back Ipswich to Win @ 2.0421/20 (best bet)

Championship 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 104 pts
Returned: 126.96 pts
P/L: + 22.96 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet