Against All Odds: Villarreal to make amends at Barcelona

Villarreal celebrate one of their two recent goals at the Nou Camp

It's Copa del Rey action for Paul Robinson today as he thinks that it's a value bet to oppose Barcelona at home to Villarreal.

Barcelona v Villarreal
Wednesday February 11, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

These two clubs met in the league 10 days ago and I recommended the same bet at the same price. Things were looking good as Villarreal led twice, but Lionel Messi struck to break our hearts.

The reasons I outlined that day still stand for this fixture. Barcelona aren't the team they once were and while the goals have been flowing more freely of late, I'm still not sold on the Messi/Suarez/Neymar front three.

Nicknamed 'The Yellow Submarine', Villarreal have been progressing at a rate of knots since winning promotion back to La Liga in 2013. They finished in sixth place in their first season back in the top flight and they are only three points off the top four after 22 games of this campaign. 

Winning the Copa del Rey would be a huge achievement for a club who haven't won any trophy of note in their history. Marcelino has the players at his disposal to do so, as evidenced by the fact that they've lost just one of their last 20 in all competitions.

This is the first leg of two and I expect it to be very tight. The hosts are the worthy favourites, but they are too short in the betting on all known evidence. That's why, with Barcelona trading at around the 1.251/4 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Barcelona v Villarreal @ 1.251/4

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 40 pts
Returned: 31.96 pts
P/L: - 8.04 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)