Burnley v West Brom: Goals, goals, goals at Turf Moor

Sean Dyche has worked wonders at Burnley

The first of three Premier League fixtures live on Sky Sports this Sunday comes from Turf Moor and Paul Robinson thinks that it could surprise viewers...

Burnley v West Brom
Sunday February 8, 12:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

A run of three consecutive defeats has seen Burnley exit the FA Cup and drop to 17th place in the Premier League. While they are only three points ahead of rock bottom, Leicester, The Clarets are only the same amount behind, Crystal Palace, in 13th.

Therefore a win for Sean Dyche's side would be a huge boost this weekend, especially considering that they play one of their relegation rivals. Burnley have only won three times at Turf Moor this season though, however all of them did come in their last seven outings in front of their own fans.

Things were looking better for West Brom following the appointment of Tony Pulis as manager. A 7-0 trouncing of Gateshead in the FA Cup was followed by a win over Hull in the league. They then earned a hard fought draw at Goodison Park, before knocking Birmingham out of the cup, but their progress was checked last weekend by a 3-0 home defeat to Spurs.

I would argue that the margin of victory flattered Tottenham with Hugo Lloris pulling off some fine saves as The Baggies looked dangerous going forward. The defending would have disappointed Pulis though as he is renowned for an organised defence - something which the back four on Saturday looked anything but.

Match Odds
Burnley 2.6613/8 West Brom 3.052/1 The Draw 3.39/4

The Betfair punters make the hosts the marginal favourites here and with home advantage, I can see why. There isn't much else to split them but with Pulis' success at Palace fresh in the mind, I find it hard to back against him.

The draw is the outsider of the three - albeit marginally - and that's the bet for me. It doesn't do either of them that much good in terms of moving up the table, but it will at least give them both something to build on following last week - and I'm sure that the respective managers would secretly settle for a point before kick off.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.447/5 Under 2.5 Goals 1.674/6

This match could be described as one for the purists but I have a sneaky suspicion that it could surprise a few. Burnley's last seven scorelines read; 2-2, 3-3, 1-1, 2-1, 4-2, 2-3 and 2-0. A dozen of those 28 goals were scored by Burnley players and as witnessed at The Hawthorns last Saturday, Tony Pulis hasn't ironed out his team's defensive frailties yet.

West Brom themselves have seen three of their last five reward over 2.5 goal backers - five out of nine in the bigger picture - and when they last took on this opposition back in September, they netted four times.

Correct Score  

A high-scoring draw is my bet of choice for a correct score and 2-2 at 19.5n/a fits the bill. I have already outlined my reasons for a selection of this nature above, so I won't repeat myself here. I just think it's massive value, and that the market is reacting to the names of the clubs involved, rather than the statistics on offer.

Cash Out  

Over 4.5 goals can currently be backed at 11.5n/a and I would expect that to trade much shorter in running. A frantic pace early on is all but guaranteed and if we can get a goal or two in the opening stages, the odds of five goals or more will plummet.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 3.39/4
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.447/5
Back a 2-2 Correct Score @ 19.5n/a 

Best Cash Out
Back Over 4.5 Goals @ 11.5n/a