Bundesliga Betting: Bayern and Dortmund to return to winning ways

BVB skipper Mats Hummels has got his mojo back

After securing 3/4 winners at the weekend, Kevin Hatchard's hoping to glean some more profit from the Bundesliga's midweek fixtures...

Bayern Munich v Schalke
Tuesday February 3, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Bayern Munich's dreams of an unbeaten season were torn to shreds on Friday, as Wolfsburg ran riot in a 4-1 win at the Volkswagen Arena. For Bayern fans and players, the game was uncomfortably reminiscent of the Bavarians' collapse against Real Madrid in last season's Champions League semi-finals. Bayern were outfought and outworked in midfield, and their defending was so wild-eyed and fevered, that for one of the Wolfsburg goals the visitors tried to set an offside trap in the opposition's half.

The gap between the top two is now eight points, but don't be fooled into thinking the title race is back on. Bayern will still retain their crown, and this defeat may prove to be the jolt they need to make sure they keep their intensity throughout the Ruckrunde. They are fortunate they have another game almost straight away, and it's against one of their favourite victims.

Schalke are fourth after the weekend's 1-0 win over Hannover, and Italian coach Roberto Di Matteo has certainly made a positive impact since taking the tiller from the perennially haunted Jens Keller. Schalke have played 11 Bundesliga games since the change of coach, and have collected 22 points from a possible 33.

Di Matteo has made Schalke more conservative, and they make fewer defensive errors nowadays. They have kept five clean sheets in his 11 games, and haven't conceded more than twice in any of those matches. The shrewd acquisition of Manchester City's young centre-back Matija Nastasic gives Di Matteo a handy extra option.

One thing Di Matteo must address is Schalke's inferiority complex against elite sides. They have folded against teams like Bayern in recent seasons, and last term they lost this fixture 5-1 (they were 4-0 down in 28 minutes). Bayern have won seven of their last eight Bundesliga games against the men from the Ruhr, and in four of those wins the champions scored four goals or more.

Bayern are stinging after their catastrophe in Wolfsburg, and I suspect Schalke will suffer the backlash. Di Matteo is returning to the Allianz Arena for the first time since leading Chelsea to Champions League glory against Bayern, but without suspended striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (he's been banned for six games for a horror challenge against Hannover), I can't see his Royal Blues getting a result.

Bayern have won all nine of their Bundesliga home games, and they've led at the break in seven of those wins. I expect them to come out all guns blazing, so it's worth backing Bayern/Bayern in the HT/FT market, even at the skinny price of 1.584/7.

Pep Guardiola's men won't be as vulnerable to the counter-attack at home as they were on Friday, and the loss of Huntelaar is a huge blow for Schalke. There's a good chance that Bayern will keep another clean sheet, so it's worth sticking half a point each on 2-0 and 3-0 in the Correct Score market, even as a Cash Out play.

Recommended Bets
Back Bayern/Bayern in the HT/FT market at 1.584/7
Back 2-0 at 8.415/2 and 3-0 at 8.615/2 in the Correct Score market (half a point each)

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg
Tuesday Feburary 3, 19:00

Wolfsburg handled the emotion and pressure of Friday night superbly, as they played their first match since the tragic death of Junior Malanda. The fans gave their tributes to the departed 20-year-old, and the players paid their respects with a phenomenal performance against the champions Bayern.

Kevin de Bruyne - a friend and compatriot of Malanda's - put in the latest in a string of stunning displays which have made him one of the Bundesliga's hottest properties. He scored two goals and made another, and now has five goals and 11 assists in just 18 league appearances. Bayern are ominously starting to pay attention to a player Jose Mourinho deemed surplus to requirements at Chelsea.

Wolfsburg now face a trip to Eintracht Frankfurt, who are one of the most entertaining teams in the league. Thomas Schaaf's Eagles are thrilling going forward, and truly atrocious at the back. Their second-half collapse in Saturday's 4-1 defeat at Freiburg was an object lesson in how not to defend.

Frankfurt have seen 12 of their 18 league games feature four goals or more, including a 2-2 draw in Wolfsburg in the reverse fixture. The Wolves have had seven games which have contained at least four goals, and they should find plenty of gaps in the division's second-worst defence.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.245/4

Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg
Wednesday February 4, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Borussia Dortmund slipped to the foot of the table on Saturday, but there were some encouraging signs during their 0-0 draw at Bayer Leverkusen. The defence looked a lot more solid, with skipper Mats Hummels far more comfortable than he was in the latter part of 2014. Although the passing was very poor (their 44% accuracy mark was the worst ever recorded in the Bundesliga), BVB pressed effectively, and new signing Kevin Kampl showed skill and energy on his debut.

Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp says his players accept they are in a relegation battle, so people shouldn't expect champagne football. However, I think a few corks could be popped against Augsburg.

Although the Bavarians have risen to the giddy heights of fifth, almost all of their good work has taken place at their SGL Arena. While they have won seven out of nine at home, they have lost six out of nine on the road. Dortmund have collected seven points from their last three home games, and with a clutch of attacking players approaching full fitness, they can secure a morale-boosting victory. It's also worth noting that these two sides have met seven times in the last four seasons, and Dortmund have won five and drawn two.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.07n/a

Paderborn v Hamburg
Wednesday February 4, 19:00

With so many teams in the relegation mire, they'll be plenty of scraps like this between now and the end of the season. Everyone's second team, plucky old Paderborn, have started to fade like a 1500-metre runner who kicked for home far too early. They were thrashed 5-0 at Mainz on Saturday, and they have now gone eight games without a Bundesliga win.

Andre Breitenreiter's men collected plenty of points during the Hinrunde by playing on the front foot, but the goals have dried up. SCP have scored just five goals in their last eight games, and they've drawn a blank in five of their last ten outings. Early headline-grabbers Elias Kachunga and Moritz Stoppelkamp are struggling - Stoppelkamp hasn't scored since the first week of October, while Kachunga has netted in just two of his last 13 games.

When I tell you that Hamburg have scored even fewer league goals than Aston Villa, you'll realise just how bad they are. HSV are out of the dropzone only on goal difference after Saturday's 2-0 defeat to FC Cologne. The Redshorts have scored just nine goals in 18 games, and only two of those have come on the road. It remains to be seen whether the signings of veteran striker Ivica Olic and Chilean playmaker Marcelo Diaz will make an impact.

A relegation scrap between two teams firing blanks and low on confidence shouldn't yield too many goals, so back No in the Both Teams to Score market.

Recommended Bet
Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.265/4

Kevin will be commentating on Bayern Munich v Schalke for TuneIn and talkSPORT. To listen, search for "Bundesliga English" on the TuneIn app or website

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 74

Points Returned: 75.43

P/L: +1.43 points