Australian Open: Murray value in side markets

"Let's get a motel room." "Shall we play the match first?"

Looking to continue his record in a profitable column, Jack Houghton thinks that Andy Murray can serve the most aces on route to serving up a grand-slam win in Melbourne. And given how closely matched Djokovic and Murray are, it's more than likely that we'll see a tie-break, too...

At the start of this tournament I wrote about the amazing powers of recovery of Rafael Nadal and recommended a back-to-lay bet at 13.012/1. I was able to get out for a nice profit at 7.613/2, but I hope some of you were a little braver and held out longer.

Nadal traded at as low as 6.05/1 for good money, but was ultimately short of his best when being thrashed by Tomas Berdych in the quarter-finals. Keep faith in the Spaniard, though: providing further injury concerns don't surface as a result of his exertions in Melbourne, Nadal will be one to be on the right side of in his next few outings.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray meet in Sunday's final in their fifth grand-slam final, with the score currently level at 2-2. In all matches, though, Djokovic looks to have the edge. He holds a 15-8 lead, including a 4-2 advantage in grand-slam encounters, and has won their last five. However, it's worth remembering that many of their recent encounters have come when Murray has been playing with, or recovering from, various injuries, and taking these matches out of the equation, there is little to separate the pair.

To my mind, then, with very little between the two players, Murray looks the value at 3.1511/5, but perhaps even better value can be found in the side markets.

Most Aces

To date, head-to-head, Murray has served more aces on 18 occasions (78%), to Djokovic's three (13%), with two matches ending in a tie. All this tells you that Murray should be 1.282/7 to serve most aces, with Djokovic at 7.613/2. At the time of writing the market is still fairly illiquid, but Murray should be available at around 1.68/13, and, if so, there's huge value to be had in supporting the Scot.

Tie Break

In a total of 62 sets they have played, Djokovic and Murray have contested 11 tie-breaks, or one every 5.6 sets played, making them the most-likely match-up of the world's top four (and one of the most likely match-ups in tennis) to play a tie-break. Assuming they play four or five sets in Monday's final, that translates to odds of 1.412/5 that we'll see a tie-break, and 3.44n/a that we won't. At the time of writing, "Yes" is available at exactly 1.412/5. It might drift a little as the market heats up, but there is unlikely to be enough of a price discrepancy to recommend a bet.

Set Betting

Despite how closely matched the two appear on the head-to-head statistics, they have not tended to produce especially competitive individual matches, with the first set often being the deciding factor in the outcome of their encounters. An ancillary statistic to note - of interest perhaps to in-play punters - is that in their 23 matches, the player who has won the first set has gone on to win the match on 19 occasions. Of the 81 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've used 62, or 76% of them. Applying this to Sunday's final, we might expect to see three or four sets, but, perhaps against expectations, are unlikely to see five. Given I'm prepared to risk supporting Murray, I'll be backing him to win 3-1 at 8.415/2.

Recommended Bets
10-point back Andy Murray to serve most aces at 1.68/13
2-point back Andy Murray to win 3-1 at 8.415/2

Australian Wallet

Remember, to bet on any Aussie Open market you'll first need to transfer funds to your Australian Wallet. Find out more in this video.