Rugby is no different to other sports in the way teams perform better at home than away. This article looks into historic Home Field Advantage data to help you with your Six Nations rugby betting.
An analysis of the Six Nations competition since its inception in 2000 showed that teams playing at home won 59.86% of games over 15 seasons, proving a distinct home advantage.
This figure increases to an even more impressive 73.58% when we remove the two teams who have yet to win the Six Nations (Italy, and Scotland). While this information proves the widely held belief that home teams perform better, it gets more interesting when comparing the HFA of individual teams.
HFA for individual teams in Six Nations betting
To calculate the Home Field Advantage, take the number of points scored at home per season (HF) and minus the number of points conceded at home (HA).
Then divide by the number of home games played in a season (2 or 3 – three teams play at home twice one year, and three the following):
(HF – HA)\Number of home games in a season = HFA
For the table below, we calculated each nations’ results for the past six seasons and their average for the entire Six Nations tournament.
Nation
6 Nations Titles
Home Point Differential (since start of the 6 Nations)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
England
4
17.35
7.00
12.30
7.00
20.00
4.50
21.00
Scotland
0
-4.76
-11.00
6.00
-6.50
2.67
-4.50
0.00
Ireland
2
11.89
28.00
-3.00
24.00
6.50
10.00
5.00
Wales
4
6.32
25.67
21.00
-0.50
8.00
3.00
France
5
10.95
6.67
-1.50
8.00
16.00
17.00
7.00
Italy
0
-13.41
-21.00
-1.66
1.55
-3.00
-0.50
-25.33
It's no coincidence that the two most successful nations in the Six Nations tournament France (five championships) and England (four championships) have the highest average home points differentials, scoring (on average) 11.89 and 17.35 more points than they concede at home.
What is interesting is that despite being the joint second most successful nation with four championships, Wales (6.32) actually have a lower average home points differential than Ireland (11.89). Even after eliminating Wales’ disastrous 2003 wooden spoon campaign, their average home points differential only works out at (8.31).
It is important to look at recent form however. Wales won in both 2012 and 2013 and their subsequent HFA increased to 17.66 for the three most recent Six Nations tournaments.
Italy and Scotland have performed the worst in the Six Nations, holding 13 of the 15 wooden spoons between them – Italy (10) and Scotland (3) – and it comes as no surprise to see them both have a negative average home points differential of -13.41 and -4.76 respectively.
However, to understand each nations HFA better we need to compare each nations home points differential with their away differential to note just how much better they play under the influence of a home crowd and in familiar surroundings.
Home vs. Away Points Differential
Interestingly, Ireland top the list for teams who perform better at home, gaining an average of 12.22 points more than they do on the road. England and Wales aren’t too far from this number, with the English gaining 11.51 and the Welsh at 11.42 more points at home than away.
Nation
Home
Away
Home Benefit (Difference)
England
17.35
5.84
11.51
Scotland
-4.76
-13.55
8.80
Ireland
11.89
-0.32
12.22
Wales
6.32
-5.11
11.42
France
10.95
5.62
5.33
Italy
-13.41
-20.84
7.44
Scotland, Italy and France all have notably smaller differences between their home and away results, scoring 8.80, 7.44 and 5.33 more points at home respectively.
What causes these big differences is unknown, but there are numerous factors that could have a major influence. Discovering these factors – and noting when they are in play – could go a long way to improving your Six Nations betting results.
The possible influences of HFA?
While the stats suggest each team performs better at home than away, it’s almost impossible to quantify this to a specific home-field advantage handicap. This is due to a number of external influences, whereby each influence affects the other.
One major reason is that each nation’s mean HFA changes year-on-year. Another is that no one has managed to objectively define the factors that influence HFA, which could range from form, weather, crowds, referees, future intentions, strength of schedule and a feel-good factor that winning breeds. Bettors are advised to consider all of these before betting on Six Nations.
Handicap betting & HFA
It isn’t surprising that England beat Italy at home, but by understanding how much better England are at home should interest handicap bettors.
Below is a table showcasing the Six Nation teams performances against the spread in 2014.
Nation
Covered
Home
Away
England
80%
50%
100%
Ireland
80%
100%
50%
Wales
40%
100%
0%
Scotland
40%
33%
50%
France
40%
100%
0%
Italy
20%
0%
50%
Ireland – who won the Six Nations in 2013 – covered the spread in an impressive 80% of games including a 100% home record.
Interestingly despite losing all five games on their way to the Wooden Spoon Italy covered the spread once, while Wales and Italy failed to cover on the road. However this is a small sample size and could be a result of variance. To increase the sample data we can look at the cover % over the past four tournaments.
The table below highlights each nations combined handicap performance over the last four Six Nations tournaments – each team has played ten games at home and ten away.
Nation
Covered
Home
Away
England
65%
59%
67%
Wales
60%
67%
67%
Italy
55%
67%
42%
Ireland
55%
79%
33%
Scotland
50%
54%
50%
France
15%
38%
0%
England lead the way by covering 65% of their matches, however more surprisingly Italy have covered in 55% of games – despite just wining four of their 20 games.
By recording historical handicap data savvy bettors would be aware that Italy have been seriously undervalued against the handicap at home, covering in an impressive 67% of games. Is this a sign that traders have underestimated the Italians HFA?
In comparison France have been overvalued in the past four tournaments covering in just 15% of their games. Despite winning nine times they only actually covered in three games. This highlights that France have been considerably overvalued on the handicap, especially away from home where they have failed to cover once.
Further work and analysis needs to be done, however there may be an opportunity to make a Six Nations rugby betting profit by working out a nations HFA more accurately than the bookmaker.
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