World Cup Opta Stats: Brazil to defy odds to reach final

Fred will be required to step up with Neymar out injured

Betfair punters have lost faith in Brazil since Neymar's injury, but Opta's stats suggest that they will see off Germany...

Brazil v Germany
Tuesday, 21:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: Brazil 2.915/8, Germany 2.8415/8, The Draw 3.259/4

Brazil have lost none of their last six semi-final matches, winning five and drawing the other

Brazil's semi-final expertise saw them contest three successive World Cup finals in 1994, 1998 and 2002 before quarter-final flops in 2006 and 2010 denied them the opportunity to extend the streak. By contrast, Germany, once so feted for their efficiency, have become international football's nearly men. They have been in contention at each of their last four tournaments without having one trophy to show for it, with the semi-finals proving their ceiling at the last two World Cups and Euro 2012.

Recommended Bet: Back Brazil to qualify @ 2.0421/20

Brazil have scored in each of their last ten clashes with Germany, averaging 2.2 goals per game

Though Brazil and Germany are two of the three most successful sides in World Cup history, and the joint-most prolific final-reachers with seven apiece, they have only met once in the competition, in the 2002 final that the Selecao won 2-0. In two of the three collisions since, Brazil breached the German defence at least twice, as they have done in seven of their nine encounters in the Premier League/Champions League era usually tagged "modern football". Germany leaked twice in two of their last three tournament semis.

Best Bet: Back Brazil to score two goals or more @ 3.39/4

Both teams had to rely on goals from centre-halves to win their quarter-final matches

Germany's quarter-final goal came courtesy of Mats Hummels, while Thiago Silva and David Luiz did the business for the hosts, and it is the latter Brazilian defender who has to be judged the strongest candidate to blast his way back onto the scoresheet. The Paris St-Germain-bound defender notched in both knockout-round fixtures to date, a feat matched by just James Rodriguez. He showed against Colombia that he is near the front of the free-kick-taking queue, while he might even claim penalty-taking duties in Neymar's absence having fired in the first of the round-of-16 shootout with Chile.

Recommended Bet: Back David Luiz to score @ 11.010/1