Against All Odds: Back to Brazil

Hopefully the Brazilians have got over their World Cup trauma

The World Cup might be over but Paul Robinson is back in Brazil as he thinks that Parana can take something from their trip to America MG.

America MG v Parana
Tuesday July 15, 23:30 BST

America MG exit the Serie B hiatus sitting fourth in the league having picked up 17 points from their opening 10 fixtures. The top four get promoted at the end of the season so while they're where they want to be right now, there's still a long way to go.

Last year's ninth placed finishers need to arrest a mini-slump that saw them lose their final three matches before the break for the World Cup. They were soundly beaten in two of those games though and prior to that they also failed to beat Santa Cruz. It's also worth noting that they've failed to beat their opponents in their last two attempts on this ground.

Parana finished one place ahead of America MG last term but they are faring much worse this time around as they are currently languishing in 17th place having managed to pick up just nine points to date.

Claudinei Oliveira's side are better than that though and I expect them to kick on from here on in. We only need them to avoid defeat tonight and in all fairness, that's something which they've managed 50% of the time this year. That percentage is even higher if we concentrate solely on their form on the road as away from Estdio Vila Capanema they have lost just two out of five.

Most people will look at the league table and have this one down as a home banker but I'm not quite so sure. There are plenty of reasons to believe that we could get an upset, so with America MG trading at around the 1.715/7 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay America MG v Parana @ 1.715/7 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 186 pts
Returned: 196.99 pts
P/L: + 10.99 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)