Tunisia v Equatorial Guinea: Opposing the favourites the smart bet in last-eight showdown

Home fans have had plenty to celebrate at the tournament

The hosts are strong enough to cause a shock on Saturday night, writes James Eastham...

Tunisia v Equatorial Guinea
Sat, 19:30 GMT
Live on British Eurosport

Tunisia qualified for the quarter-finals as Group B winners, collecting 5pts from three games. Hosts Equatorial Guinea qualified as Group A runners-up, also picking up 5pts from three group matches.

Match Odds
Tunisia 2.226/5, Equatorial Guinea 4.03/1, The Draw 3.1511/5

Going into the finals Tunisia were rated as dark horses and certainly favoured to go further than Equatorial Guinea even though the latter had home advantage.

But it hasn't quite turned out like that. The two teams had identical W1-D2-L0 records during the group phase and Equatorial Guinea had a superior goal difference (+2 to Tunisia's +1). You could argue Equatorial Guinea landed in a slightly easier group so had a more straightforward passage to the knockout phase but the truth is there was very little difference in terms of performance standard between these two teams.

For that reason the odds on Tunisia look too short. They certainly have the potential to win and may come good here but based on what we've seen at the tournament I'd rather be on the draw or the underdogs.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.4840/85, Overs 2.962/1

This has been a low-scoring tournament. The average goals-per-game count during the group phase was 1.88 and 19 out of those 24 group games (79%) featured under 2.5 goals. All three of Equatorial Guinea's group games and two of Tunisia's three group games featured under 2.5 goals so there's no particularly good reason to expect this game to buck the low-scoring trend.

Recent history shows Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals are higher-scoring than you might expect - half of the quarter-finals over the past five tournaments have featured three goals or more in 90 minutes. But I'm unwilling to back overs based on what I've seen from these two teams.

Half Time Score

Generally speaking first-halves have been slow affairs where the two teams have cancelled each other out. It is therefore no surprise that only 28% of the tournament's 45 goals have been scored in the first-halves of games.

Two of Tunisia's three group games and two of Equatorial Guinea's three group games were goalless at the interval. Given the nature of the first-halves so far, backing a 0-0 half-time scoreline at an odds-against price could prove profitable.

Correct Score

Ten of the 24 group games ended 1-1 so that would be the pick in the correct score market - especially if, like me, you believe this game will be closer than the Match Odds market suggests. Available at 6.611/2, the 1-1 scoreline should draw plenty of backers.

Recommended Bets
The Draw @ 3.1511/5
0-0 Half Time Score @ 2.35/4

Tournament P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 7.97pts
P/L: -6.03pts