League Two Betting: Southend can't handle midweeks

Dark Tuesday nights at Roots Hall have not been very rewarding for Phil Brown's Southend in the past three years

Some of the teams at the bottom have to start picking up points, says Ian Lamont, who goes for Cheltenham and Hartlepool to dent their opponents' momentum, but York to suffer defeat at Luton...

Southend 1.768/11 v Cheltenham 5.14/1; the draw 4.03/1

Sometimes it is the quirky stats which work wonders in sport, for little explicable reason. For a few years, a friend who bet in the Conference always backed the bottom team if they were facing the division's top team and it often paid off at handsome odds.

Similarly, new managers winning their first match works, maybe because of the 'new broom' theory.

One stat that might just have a bearing at Roots Hall is an odd one: Southend have not won a league match at home on a Tuesday in 10 attempts, over three years.

Could this one break that run? There seems hope for the visitors in gaining a point, because three of the last four  home games for Phil Brown's side have ended 0-0 and in the other they defeated York but only 1-0.

As for Cheltenham, it is not surprising that their bid to turn their season around faltered on Saturday, simply because they had six players making their debuts. They need time to bed in. It feels blunt to say 'they've had that' but here is their quick second chance to impress.

No fans like to hear that success would be staying up - as Robins boss Paul Buckle has said - but he is trying to be realistic. Honest is an overused word. Perhaps he is being overly honest.

Cheltenham's loanee from Bristol City Wes Burns has already scored twice against the Robins this season and the Welshman paid something back with a goal in the 3-1 defeat to Burton. Matt Richards playing on the left of midfield (to accommodate new faces), rather than centrally, didn't please fans either.

Southend's defence might take some breaking down, but, despite sitting in the play-off zone, their attack seems to need a little verve, with Jack Payne, David Worrall and Barry Corr sharing top scorer status with five league goals apiece. 

Southend, at odds-on, are layable.

Recommended Bet
Lay Southend @ 1.768/11

Hartlepool 3.412/5 v Northampton 2.3411/8; the draw 3.55/2

If Ronnie Moore was frustrated after Hartlepool's defeat at Portsmouth it is easy to sympathise. One minute they are giving performances which suggest they might earn points (two wins and a draw in four games), the next they play 90 minutes without registering a shot on target.

Marvin Morgan will take time to find the pace of matches having not played 90 minutes since October and needs to find an understanding quickly with Scott Fenwick, who scored three goals in four games before Saturday.

The whole team, of course, need to understand the new 3-5-2 system  which Moore is determined to make work, with the front two in mind. 

Time is running out for Pools, however, while Northampton's tails are up. Matt Richards' 16th league goals of the season earned them a fifth straight win, this being the hardest fought of all according to eyewitnesses.

Both sides need to show battling qualities for different reasons, with the visitors now having a realistic shout at the play-offs.

A set of midweek fixtures has not given a lot of new recruits at several clubs - Cheltenham and Hartlepool included - the chance to settle in via much training. But won't have taken them long to work out that they are in a dogfight and for that reason Hartlepool could well battle to a draw here. 

Recommended Bet:
Back Hartlepool and Northampton to draw @ 3.55/2

Luton 2.01/1 v York 4.47/2; the draw 3.613/5

York might have a better points tally away - with 17- than at home - 11 points - but it is still a surprise to find their hosts as big as even money for this fixture.

John Still's men have conceded just seven goals at Kenilworth Road, and have nine wins and three draws at home. On-loan striker Nathan Oduwa (Tottenham) gave them an injection of pace as a substitute against Oxford on Saturday and is hinting at loan moves  - in and out of the club - in the near future.

Still's three factors for promotion are the team that holds their form and nerve and never gives up.

York seem to need that particular pep talk, having fallen into the bottom two, familiar territory from just before this time last year. Russ Wilcox attempted it, spelling out that many staff at the club have jobs on the line if they are relegated, three years after returning to the Football League from the Conference. They lacked quality against Dagenham, he said. 

Luton seems to be able to bring that in at the drop of a hat. But five draws from the past seven games is a statistic Still will want to improve - and is a nod to how the layers have priced this game - and they will have to battle hard to win this, which is something they can achieve.

Recommended Bet
Back Luton @ 2.01/1

P/L 2014-15

+10.97