La Liga Betting: Defences to look silly at the Cornella-El Prat

Purple Patch: Espanyol have had some classic battles with Valencia recently

The Madrid derby has got a preview all of its own, which means Espanyol and Valencia have a chance to shine in Tobias Gourlay's regular roundup of the Primera Division's televised games

Levante v Malaga
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Levante 3.613/5 Malaga 2.3611/8 draw 3.39/4

Seventh-placed Malaga have La Liga's sixth-best defence, conceding 21 times in 21 outings. 

The Anchovies have travelled to the Ciutat de Valencia without Sergi Darder, their central (both senses) midfielder who is suspended, but recent absentees Weligton and Sergio Sanchez could both start in defence.

Levante are bottom of the table and boast La Liga's least potent attack, striking just 13 times so far and not at all in any of their last four outings.

With Malaga only striking more than once in 1/10 home and away, and David Navarro returning to marshal the home side's defence, Under 2.5 Goals is duly priced in at 1.574/7.

Levante are bolstered further by an influx of players through the transfer window. Kalu Uche, once a regular scorer at this level for Almeria, is back in Spain, while Bryan Ruiz will be available if Fifa sanctions a loan deal with Fulham.

Malaga's strong away record (W4-D1-L1 against teams now in the bottom half) justifies their favouritism, but their own lack of goals is a concern. With nine of their 10 Liga wins this term coming by the narrowest possible margin, we prefer to reduce our stake and raise the odds on another slender success for the Anchovies this weekend.

Recommended Bet
0.5pts - Back Malaga by 1 Winning Margin @ 4.216/5

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Sociedad 2.6813/8 Celta 2.9215/8 draw 3.412/5

Meetings of these two have been pretty entertaining recently: both teams have scored in 5/5 Liga encounters since Celta Vigo rejoined the top flight in 2012.

Recent history suggests we might not be so lucky on Saturday. Sociedad have not scored more than once since late November and the dawn of the David Moyes era.

Celta Vigo have scored just three times across 11 Liga outings since a famous 1-0 win at the Camp Nou.

Six of Sociedad's last eight Liga games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals. The exceptions were heavy away defeats to good teams (Real Madrid and Villarreal).

Ten of Celta's last 12 have gone the same way - and one of the exceptions here was also a heavy defeat at the Bernabeu.

1.758/11 looks a generous price on another low scorer this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.758/11

Espanyol v Valencia
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Espanyol 2.915/8 Valencia 2.77/4 draw 3.3512/5

Since the start of 2010/11 all nine Liga meetings of these two have delivered Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams scoring in 8/9.

Espanyol are unbeaten in four at home to Los Che (W2-D2-L0) and have a strong W6-D3-L2 record at the Cornella-El Prat this term. However, the six wins have come against teams now 10th and below in the table. Against better sides, they are W0-D2-L2.

Valencia, however, have been doing most of their best work on home turf. They've scored in 8/10 on the road and conceded at least once in the same fraction. An overall W3-D4-L3 away record isn't enough for us to support them, even if Espanyol are missing their first-choice keeper.

We're treating Kiko Casilla's absence as another reason to get behind goals. At the other end, Valencia are without defensive lynchpin Nicolas Otamendi and that too is pushing us in the same direction.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4

Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Athletic 9.89/1 Barcelona 1.384/11 draw 5.69/2

Barcelona haven't won in Bilbao since 2010, but rarely get as good an opportunity as this to stick one on the traditionally obdurate Basques.

The hosts have already lost four times at San Mames. They are without a clean sheet in five, shipping four to Atletico Madrid just before Christmas. This weekend Ernesto Valverde must do without midfield shield Ander Iturraspe and stalwart right-back Andoni Iraola.

Barcelona have struck 16 times in taking maximum points from their last four Liga matches. Add in some recent Copa del Rey successes and their winning streak is eight.

At full strength, and with Messi and Neymar in fine form, the visitors can win with something to spare on Sunday night.

Recommended Bet
0.75pts - Back Barcelona -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.07n/a
0.25pts - Back Any Other Away Win Correct Score @ 4.3100/30

2014/15 La Liga P/L

Staked: 82.25pts
Returned: 80.38pts

P/L: -1.87pts

2013/14 P/L: +18.77pts (11.55% ROI)