Ivory Coast v Ghana: Why the Black Stars are strong enough to cause a final upset

Andre Ayew will be a goalscoring threat for the underdogs

Opposing the favourites is the smart bet in the Africa Cup of Nations final, writes James Eastham...

Ivory Coast v Ghana
Sun, 19:00 GMT
Live on ITV4 & British Eurosport

In what promises to be a fantastic match, Ivory Coast are looking to lift the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since 1992. Ghana are going for their fifth tournament victory and first since 1982.

Match Odds
Ivory Coast 2.56/4, Ghana 3.3512/5, The Draw 3.211/5

Ghana have been the better of these two sides in the tournament. They bounced back from defeat to Senegal (1-2) in their opening game to win their other two group matches and then recorded consecutive 3-0 victories in the knockout stage against Guinea (quarter-finals) and hosts Equatorial Guinea (semi-finals). In contrast, Ivory Coast picked up only 5pts in their group (W1-D2-L0) before being a bit lucky to beat Algeria (3-1) in the quarter-finals and then having an easier time against DR Congo in the semi-finals (3-1).

My colleague Dave Farrar tipped Ghana to be winners before the tournament began, so if you followed his advice you get the chance to lay off for a profit by opposing Avram Grant's side this weekend. If you didn't back Ghana before the tournament got under way, then back them now, as their odds look too big given how these two sides have played.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.564/7, Overs 2.6213/8

Two-thirds of the games at this tournament have had two goals or fewer but that is mainly down to how low-scoring the group stages were. The goal count has shot up since the knockout stages began: five of the six sudden-death games have featured three goals or more in 90 minutes, with the average 90 minute goal count 3.67.

What's obvious is these two sides are fully capable of making this a high-scoring game as they've netted six goals each in two knockout games. There are plenty of outstanding attackers on show and it is not in either team's nature to sit back.

Africa Cup of Nations finals are generally low-scoring - eight of the last 10 have featured two goals or fewer in 90 minutes and the last five finals have been either 0-0 or 1-0. But this fixture could buck that trend.

Both Teams to Score?
Yes 2.26/5, No 1.768/11

Backing both teams to scorer has been a great route to profit at this tournament: it's paid out in 19 out of 30 matches and has generally been available at odds-against prices. Given the enterprising football these two sides have played in the knockout phase and the attacking talent on show (Wilfried Bony, Jordan Ayew, Gervinho, Yaya Toure), 'Yes' is one of the best bets on this game.

Asian handicap

If, like me, you think Ghana are too big but are wary of the game going to extra-time, the Asian handicap is the bet for you. By backing Ghana with a slight start you'll make money as long as Ghana avoid defeat in 90 minutes (for more on how Asian handicap betting works, click here).

Recommended Bets
Ghana +0&+0.5 Asian handicap @ 1.834/5
'Yes' in Both teams to Score? market @ 2.26/5