FA Cup Stats Review: Derby to inflict a right royal defeat on Reading

Steve McClaren's side have performed well in both cup competitions this season

Stats analyst Andrew Atherley believes Steve McClaren's Championship highflyers are the most solid bet in the FA Cup fifth round...

Derby delivered a win for this column in the fourth round of the FA Cup and they look a good bet to march into the quarter-finals with another home victory on Saturday when they host Reading.

Not just any home victory either; as in their last tie against Chesterfield, Derby rate good value to cover the handicap by recording at least a two-goal margin of victory over their fellow Championship side.

The main concern about Derby is that the bigger priority for Steve McClaren has to be promotion to the Premier League, especially with even more mega riches soon on offer from the latest TV deal, but there are similar complicating factors in most of the ties.

Middlesbrough are in a similar position to Derby as they head away to Arsenal (although that did not stop them winning at Manchester City in the fourth round), while six of the 10 Premier League sides left in the competition are involved in the relegation battle and surely their chief concern is getting out of trouble, rather than going for some cup glory.

In the circumstances it may be best to pick one or two ties where the league form might stand up and Derby v Reading fits the bill better than most.

For a start, the two teams are from the same division, which provides some form lines to go on. There is a considerable gap between them in the Championship, with third-placed Derby 21 points and 11 places ahead of Reading, and the difference in class appears to have been confirmed in two head-to-heads this season. 

Derby won 2-0 at home in the Capital One Cup in September and 3-0 away in the league a month later, although it has to be noted that Reading have changed manager in the interim with the appointment of Steve Clarke in December.

Even with signs of improvement under Clarke, Reading are still quite some way behind Derby. The Royals rank 14th in the Championship since Clarke's appointment, but it is telling that Derby have been the best side in the division in that period.

The relative form is reflected in win odds of 1.768/11 for McClaren's side, which indicates they are the second-best home chance on the FA Cup programme (only Arsenal are shorter odds).

When it comes to the concern over McClaren's commitment to cup competition, it is notable that Derby's only defeat in seven cup ties was 3-1 at home to Chelsea in the Capital One Cup. That is the only time they have met a Premier League team, and when they have been the superior side they have pressed home their advantage with six wins out of six.

From that solid position, it is worth trying to add some value by backing Derby off -1 on the Asian Handicap at around 2.35n/a. That is a successful bet if Derby win by two goals or more, and no bet (with stakes returned) if they win by one goal.

Derby's stats under McClaren are compelling. They have won 14 out of 20 at home to bottom-half teams during his reign (a 70% win rate) and a clear majority of those wins have been by two goals or more (10 out of 14). The stats indicate that when they win, they win big.

With exactly half of all home games against Reading's class of opposition having been won by two goals or more during McClaren's reign, Derby appear to have a value edge on the handicap.

Recommended Bet
Back Derby off -1 on Asian Handicap v Reading @ 2.35n/a (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 59 pts
Returned: 62.07 pts
P/L: +3.07 pts