DR Congo v Ivory Coast: Tournament favourites face real fight to reach final

Gervinho scored in his country's 3-1 quarter-final triumph

Wilfried Bony and co. have a battle on their hands in the first semi-final, writes James Eastham...

DR Congo v Ivory Coast
Wed, 19:00 GMT
Live on ITV4 & British Eurosport

The tournament burst into life in the quarter-finals, with some fantastic encounters and plenty of goals. It sets things up perfectly for this first semi-final, to be played in Bata on Wednesday evening.

Match Odds
DR Congo 6.411/2, Ivory Coast 1.695/7, The Draw 3.814/5

Ivory Coast are clear favourites - and that's understandable when you look at the two line-ups. Ivory Coast's is packed with household names whereas DR Congo were not even favourites to win their opening-round group.

But if you look at how the two teams have performed at the finals there has been little difference in standard. Ivory Coast won only one of their three group games and then got lucky in beating Algeria 3-1 in the quarter-finals. On the balance of play that game should have probably finished all-square, with Ivory Coast goalkeeper Sylvain Gbohouo needing to produce some top-class saves at big moments in that match before second-half goals from Wilfried Bony and Gervinho saw Ivory Coast through.

DR Congo drew all three of their group games before producing a remarkable comeback victory to beat Congo in the last eight. They trailed 2-0 but ended up winning 4-2 in a triumph that showcased their immense attacking potential.

Ivory Coast have the pedigree and class but based on the past few weeks the gap in quality is smaller than the prices suggest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.635/8, Overs 2.56/4

Six of the last 10 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had under 2.5 goals, with Overs paying out four times (remember: only 90 minutes applies). The average goals-per-game count across those 10 matches is 2.4.

This has been a low-scoring tournament. The average goals-per-game count is 2.14, with 20 of 28 matches (71%) featuring under 2.5 goals. However, the tournament burst into high-scoring life in the quarter-finals - those four games produced 3.75 goals a game - so perhaps things have changed.

There is plenty of attacking potential on show here. Bony scored twice in Ivory Coast's 3-1 win over Algeria, Gervinho returned from suspension to net in that game as well and ex-Leeds United winger Max-Alain Gradel has already shown flashes of his ability in this tournament.

Before their team's opening game we flagged up the quality of DR Congo attackers Dieumerci Mbokani and Neeskens Kebano and they were both excellent in their country's 4-2 quarter-final win.

I prefer the Both Teams to Score? market (see below), but if you're looking for a wager in this field, I'd back Overs.

Both Teams to Score?
Yes 2.447/5, No 1.664/6

'Yes' in this market has proved to be one of the biggest money-spinners of the tournament: it would have paid out in 18 of 28 games (64%). There has been some poor finishing but just enough good attacking for teams to score once (1-1 has been the tournament's most popular scoreline), which explains why 'Yes' in this market has been a lot more profitable than Over 2.5 Goals.

Given how these two sides defended and attacked in their quarter-finals - they scored seven goals between them, conceding three times - the big price on 'Yes' is worth considering.

Asian Handicap

Another way of supporting DR Congo - if, like me, you think their odds are too big - would be to back them with an Asian Handicap start. By supporting the underdogs +0.5&+1.0, you'll get half your stakes back if DR Congo lose by one goal and make a profit if the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes or if DR Congo win in 90 minutes (for more on how Asian handicap betting works, click here).

Recommended Bets
'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ 2.447/5
DR Congo +0.5&+1.0 Asian handicap @ 2.05n/a

Tournament P/L

Staked: 19pts
Returned: 14.42pts
P/L: -4.58pts