Poland v Scotland: Strachan's improving side offer massive value

Gordon Strachan's men continue to improve and are underestimated in the betting this midweek.

Following one of the biggest results in their history Poland are looking to take control of Group D, but come up against a good Scotland side also on the front foot...

Poland v Scotland
Tuesday October 14, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Poland

Poland stunned the World Champions Germany with a first ever win against their neighbours on Saturday evening. Arkadiusz Milik and Sebastian Mila scored the goals in a 2-0 win, but the result masked what was a backs-to-the-wall performance from the Poles. The hosts commanded just 33% of possession and had only five shots on goal in comparison to Germany's 29, while the corner count was 6-0 in favour of Joachim Lw's side.

Nevertheless, Poland sit pretty atop of the Group D table, having previously beaten Gibraltar 7-0 in their opening group game. Robert Lewandowski scored four goals in that thumping of the part-timers and in doing so took his international tally to 23 goals. He has four goals for Bayern Munich so far this season, including a brace in his most recent outing against Hannover.

Manager Adam Nawaka has incredibly capped 70 players since taking over as the national team manager less than a year ago. However, the winning formula that he found at the weekend, be it by luck or judgment, is sure to be one that he'd prefer to stick with a little longer now.

Scotland

Scottish delight about the three points earned against Georgia at the weekend was tempered somewhat by the result in Warsaw - the Scots were hoping that the Germans would dominate the group and leave it for the rest of them to battle it out for second place.

But they shouldn't, and won't, get too downbeat about it. The unflattering 1-0 result against Georgia was yet another step in the right direction for this improving Scottish team with the opening hour in particular producing some exciting and attacking football. Gordon Strachan even went as far as to describe it as "the best hour, 65 minutes that we've had as a football team since I've been here".

Scotland have now won five and lost just one of their last eight games, and have kept five clean sheets during that period. Strachan's men have also lost only one of their last five away games, with that defeat coming in Germany in the opening match of this campaign.

Match Odds

Of course the win against Germany was massive, and Poland are rightly taking a lot of plaudits for it. But to have the Poles priced at odds of 1.9520/21 and Scotland out at 5.04/1 is simply wrong in my book. There certainly shouldn't be that sort of disparity and thus the visitors are a massive value Back in my opinion.

If you'd prefer to take a more conservative approach then a Lay of the home team at odds-on prices is similarly good value.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I plumped for the Overs selection at odds-against prices in my preview of Scotland's game against Georgia and despite only one goal being scored I don't feel that it was a bad bet. Scotland showcased their new attacking style and on another night could easily have scored three or more.

Available to back at odds of 2.546/4, I'm going to take another chance on the Overs 2.5 goals selection this Tuesday night. Both teams have strikers capable of scoring goals and each manager will know that three points would be massive, which could result in an attacking and open game.

To Score

I also like the look of the 7.613/2 available on Ikechi Anya scoring one of those goals. The Watford winger has been a revelation since making his belated debut for the national team and finds himself getting in to plenty of goalscoring positions. He already has two international goals to his name (from just seven appearances), including one against Germany, and looks to be overpriced here.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.546/4
2pts Lay Poland @ 1.9520/21

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 9.5 pts
Returned: 12.95 pts
P/L: +3.45 pts