Roma v Bayern Munich: Defences to dominate top-class clash

Bayern keeper Manuel Neuer has kept eight straight clean sheets

Roma and Bayern Munich are both unbeaten in the Champions League so far, and Kevin Hatchard's expecting a tight encounter at the Stadio Olimpico...

Roma v Bayern Munich
Tuesday October 21, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Roma

Having closed the gap on Juventus in the Serie A title race to just a point at the weekend, Roma can now fully focus on one of their biggest tests of the season. Coach Rudi Garcia insists his players have no fear of Bayern Munich, but will show them full respect. Midfield veteran Daniele De Rossi says Roma will play with smiles on their faces, and will go for the win. A victory would give the capital club plenty to smile about, as it would take them above Bayern and into top spot in Group E.

Aside from their highly controversial 3-2 defeat at domestic rivals Juventus, Roma have made an excellent start to the campaign. The Giallorossi have won every single home game they have played, they are yet to concede a Serie A goal at the Stadio Olimpico, and they demolished CSKA Moscow 5-1 in their Champions League opener.

Garcia can take encouragement from a fine performance in a 1-1 draw at Manchester City in Roma's second Champions League game, a result which has left them second in the group. Roma cleared their heads quickly after conceding an early penalty, they looked assured in possession, and could have won the game.

Defender Kostas Manolas is once again available after a domestic suspension, midfielder Seydou Keita is struggling with a calf problem he picked up on international duty, and Garcia must make a decision between Vassilis Torosidis and Maicon at right-back.

Bayern Munich

After an uncertain start to the campaign, Bayern Munich have found their groove, and are playing with the same swagger that they were displaying midway through last season. In the latter stages of the previous campaign, Bayern were struggling to keep control of matches, and their defending left plenty to be desired. However, Bayern have now kept eight consecutive clean sheets in all competitions.

Bayern were utterly dominant in Saturday's 6-0 thrashing of Werder Bremen, so much so that the visitors didn't even have a single goal attempt. Admittedly, Werder are hardly a useful barometer - they were atrocious on Saturday - but Bayern are certainly making strides back towards their best form.

Fresh from his heroics for Germany in the World Cup final, Mario Gotze is in superb form. He finally looks like he belongs in the Bayern first team, and he has scored six goals in seven Bundesliga appearances. Star striker Robert Lewandowski should be fully refreshed from his international exploits with Poland, after he was kept on the bench against Werder.

Bayern have no fresh injury worries regarding outfield players, and Franck Ribery got another substitute appearance under his belt at the weekend. Injuries to backup keepers Pepe Reina and Tom Starke have necessitated the call-up of reserve-team keeper Leopold Zingerle (a name that could easily have featured in Zoolander), but Manuel Neuer is fit and ready to try and extend his run of shut-outs.

Match Odds

Bayern are playing well, but compared to most of the tests they have faced this term, this is a big step up. Manchester City are arguably the best side Bayern have faced this term, and the Bavarians squeaked past them with a last-gasp winner.

As always, Bayern will try to dominate possession, and the midfield battle will be fascinating. The energetic Radja Nainggolan will try to disrupt Bayern quarterback Xabi Alonso's rhythm, while Miralem Pjanic has a great opportunity to show just how much he has improved in recent seasons.

I just can't get excited about the price of 2.01/1 for the away win. Roma will be roared on by a fervent crowd, and while that atmosphere won't faze an experienced outfit like Bayern, I suspect Guardiola's men may be happy to escape from the Italian capital unscathed if the game is level in the closing stages.

Roma are excellent at home, impressed against Manchester City, and pushed Juventus all the way in Turin. With Bayern trading at evens, I'm happy to oppose the visitors. A lay will cover the draw and home win, but I must admit the draw is temptingly big at 3.814/5, as it wouldn't be a terrible result for either side.

Under 2.5 Goals

I think this will be a really tight battle between two very talented sides, and there's evidence to suggest that Under 2.5 Goals is overpriced at 2.0811/10.

Both of Bayern's Champions League group games this term have ended in 1-0 wins, and it's worth considering that all bar one of Bayern's away games in all competitions have featured fewer than three goals, the only exception being a 4-1 German Cup win at Preussen Munster. Bayern are keeping teams at arm's length because they are hogging possession, and they will try to do the same here.

Roma have conceded just one goal at home, and I don't expect this game to be as chaotic as their showdown with Juve. Five of Roma's nine games this term have featured fewer than three goals, and for all their talk of going for victory, I'll be surprised if they risk too much in the early stages.

Both Teams To Score?

Given the case I've outlined for backing Under 2.5 Goals, it would be remiss of me not to mention that No in the Both Teams To Score market is trading at 2.35/4. That bet has paid out in five of Roma's nine games in all competitions, and eight of Bayern's 12 outings.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0811/10
Lay Bayern at 2.01/1

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