Against All Odds: Flu to stop Santos in their tracks

Fred is back to his best

Paul Robinson thinks he's found a gem of a lay in Brazil tonight as he feels that Santos will let down favourite backers.

Santos v Fluminense
Thursday October 23, 01:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Santos have climbed to seventh in the Campeonato thanks to four wins from their last five outings. They are now just five points adrift of the Copa Libertadores places - a competition they haven't featured in since the departure of Neymar. 

With nine wins and a defeat from their last 10 at their home of Vila Belmiro, it would be easy to think that Enderson Moreira's side are nailed on for victory tonight. Delve a little deeper though and you will find out that every single one of those wins came against teams who are currently ninth or lower in the division. When they did face a club higher than that - Corinthians - 'Peixe' were beaten 1-0.

Fluminense are having a much better time of things this year after a disastrous title defence last season. The Laranjeiras based team are level on points with tonight's opponents, and they too will also have their sights set on Libertadores football next term.

Cristvo Borges' men come into this fixture having lost just one of their last seven. That defeat came at the high-flying, Internacional, and they shrugged that off with a 4-2 success over Criciuma at the weekend. The much maligned, Fred, is their key man and with a dozen goals in 20 appearances this season - including four in this last five - the Brazilian clearly hasn't let his disappointing World Cup affect him.

This should be a really good game and I was sorely tempted to recommend a lay of under 2.5 goals at the same price. However, I quite enjoy opposing teams who will be classed as home bankers, so with Santos trading at around the 1.910/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Santos v Fluminense @ 1.910/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 284 pts
Returned: 295.79 pts
P/L: + 11.79 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)