Pardew needs a win and Mike believes it will come this weekend
The Premier League returns after the international break with six top-flight games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm. Our man Mike Norman briefly previews them all, recommending a wager in each...
Arsenal 1.434/9 v Hull 9.28/1; The Draw 5.24/1
Statistically this has been one of Arsenal's worst starts to a Premier League season under Arsene Wenger, but given the strength of opposition they've faced so far and their long, lingering injury list, I don't think there's anything to worry about.
The reality is that the Gunners have lost just one league game so far and they sit eighth in the table. Their next nine matches in the Premier League see them face just one of the 'big seven' - Manchester United at home in mid-November - so with a few players returning to fitness Wenger's men really ought to string a few results together.
The Tigers sit just one point behind Arsenal with the hallmark of their season to date being the fact that they've found the back of the net with regularity. Steve Bruce's men have scored in every one of their eight league and cup games this term including exactly two in each of their last five outings.
Unfotunately Hull have managed just one clean sheet on the road - at hapless QPR on the first day of the season - and I'm not expecting them to record one at the Emirates Stadium either.
I can see the Tigers getting on the scoresheet but ultimately I expect Arsenal to take all three points. There's a few bigger-price options for us along these lines but I'll play it relatively safe by backing at least three goals to be scored.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.768/11
Burnley 2.8615/8 v West Ham 2.767/4; The Draw 3.55/2
Burnley finally managed to get back amongst the goals at Leicester before the international break but it's stretching it a bit to suggest that they've turned the corner.
The fact is that the Clarets have managed to find the net just three times in seven league matches and that just won't cut it at this level.
I like West Ham this term. They've had a mixed start in the league, winning three, losing three, and drawing one, but for me they carry much more of a goal threat than they have done in recent years.
Stewart Downing is having a great season - Opta tell us that he has created the most chances in the Premier League so far (22) along with Cesc Fabregas - and Diafra Sakho has scored in all five games that he's started for the Hammers.
Don't expect a thriller between these two but if you want to play in the Match Odds market then Sam Allardyce's men are by far the most likely winners in my opinion.
Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 2.767/4
Crystal Palace 9.28/1 v Chelsea 1.444/9; The Draw 5.04/1
I imagine Neil Warnock is as excited as a kid at Christmas at the prospect of this game. I suspect his mood will be more akin to the little boy who got the best toy but didn't get the batteries to play it, come 5pm on Saturday.
This game is all about Chelsea for me. We know exactly what Crystal Palace will bring to the table - enthusiasm, fight, passion - and there'll be a great atmosphere at Selhurst Park. But without a shadow of a doubt Chelsea have way too much class for the Eagles.
That doesn't mean they're certain to win of course, as the Blues found out to their cost last term you can't take these games for granted and you have to be fully prepared.
But Chelsea this season appear a different animal. Still unbeaten, scoring for fun, and now seemingly getting back to what we expect of Jose Mourinho's men defensively - three clean sheets on the spin in all competitions.
In fact I'm expecting the Blues to make it four clean sheets in a row and will back them to do so while securing all three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.26/5
Everton 1.618/13 v Aston Villa 6.86/1; The Draw 4.216/5
If in doubt, get the stats out. That's my approach to this game on Saturday, just like it has been in the past four or five seasons.
More than at any other time in recent years however I'm struggling to make a call in the Match Odds market here. Everton have been disappointing so far this term but they've had excuses, Villa have been ok but have now lost three in succession to slip to mid-table.
So it's to the Goals markets we go, and those stats.
In every one of the last eight meetings between these two at Goodison Park, both teams have got on the scoresheet. Seven of those games resulted in Over 2.5 Goals paying out, and if we put the number of goals scored in each of the eight encounters in sequence then it looks like this; 4-5-4-2-4-4-6-3.
So not only did Over 2.5 Goals pay out on seven occasions, Over 3.5 Goals was the outcome six times!
Of course we're due a goalless draw sooner rather than later but until we get one I'm happy to keep wagering that goals will be scored. Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.865/6 but let's take a chance on the outcome that has occured 75% of the time in the last eight meetings at Goodison Park between these two.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.185/40
Newcastle 2.226/5 v Leicester 3.55n/a; The Draw 3.65n/a
Call me mad but I'm making Newcastle my best bet from Saturday afternoon's Premier League games.
As I mentioned a fortnight ago, if Jack Colback's late shot that struck the crossbar against Stoke had have found the back of the net - as it really ought to have - then we'd be now talking about a Newcastle side that have lost just one of their last eight league and cup games.
As it happens they have lost just two. The problem, obviously, is that they're not winning league games.
But I've certainly seen no evidence whatsoever of the Newcastle players not wanting to play for Alan Pardew. The Magpies twice came from behind to draw with Crystal Palace, they came from 0-2 down to draw with Hull, and they again came from behind twice to draw with Swansea last time out. Sound like they've given up to you?
I just sense that a little better defending and the rub of the green to go in their favour and Newcastle will be absolutely fine - with our without Pardew.
Leicester have started the season brilliantly but there have been signs recently that the momentum they brough forward from last season's Championship campaign is starting to wear off.
Opta tell us that Newcastle are unbeaten in their last eight league meetings with Leicester City and I'm quietly confident that they can make it nine by recording their first Premier League win of the season.
Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle to Win @ 2.226/5
Southampton 1.625/8 v Sunderland 6.86/1; The Draw 4.216/5
The season's surprise package - much like they were last term - against the draw specialists, and it's a tough one to call. I certainly expect it to be much closer than the Match Odds suggest.
I'm on record as saying that I believe Sunderland will struggle this season simply because of the lack of goals in their team, so obviously I was delighted to see Connor Wickham and Steven Fletcher link up so well against Stoke and score three between them!
Undoubtedly Gus Poyet has made them strong defensively, but if I'm being highly criticial then I'm not convinced Sunderland have had a difficult start to the campaign and facing clubs like Burnley, QPR, West Brom, Swansea, and Stoke for example should have yielded more than one victory.
The Saints have been great under Ronald Koeman this term and I certainly think they are the most likely winners here. It's just the fact that Sunderland are tough to beat that dents my confidence slightly - at 1.625/8 to back you want everything to be bomb proof and Im not sure it is in this fixture.
Opta point out that the last three league meetings between these two have ended all-square, so again it's hard to put up the home side as a confident selection.
If Southampton do make the breakthrough and go on to win then hopefully it will be in a tight, low-scoring affair, and therefore backing less than three goals to be scored could be the way to profit.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9420/21
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 33 pts
Returned: 30.24 pts
P/L: - 2.76 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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