Against All Odds: Copa do Brasil semi to entertain

The atmosphere should be great tonight

The action comes from Brazil tonight for Paul Robinson as he thinks the Copa do Brasil tie between Cruzeiro and Santos will be a high-scoring affair.

Cruzeiro v Santos
Thursday October 30, 00:00 GMT

Despite a recent stuttering of form that has seen them win just one of their last half dozen matches, defending league champions, Cruzeiro, are still on course to complete a domestic double of the Campeonato and this competition - the Copa do Brasil.

Marcelo Oliveira's side are successful because they know where the goal is. With 54 scored so far this year, they have the highest total in the entire division. Their defensive record is actually one of the worst, and that has led to their matches averaging 2.77 goals each time. It's also worth noting that three of their four cup ties have rewarded under 2.5 layers.

Santos were on a decent run but that has stalled somewhat in the last couple of weeks following a loss at home to Fluminense and a draw at Chapecoense on Saturday. Prior to that they had beaten both Botafogo and Palmeiras - racking up an impressive eight goals in the process.

Enderson Moreira's main ambition tonight will be to keep his team in the tie ahead of the second leg at Vila Belmiro. A defensive approach might not be the wisest though and I really think that he will throw players forward in order to score at least once - something which they've achieved in five of their last six on the road.

Despite this being the first leg, I have a strong feeling that the goals will flow. That's why, with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.865/6 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Cruzeiro v Santos @ 1.865/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 291 pts
Returned: 306.49 pts
P/L: + 15.49 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)