Wolves v Birmingham: Blues to make derby statement

New boss Gary Rowett can spark an instant upturn in Birmingham's fortunes

With a new boss in place for the visitors, Saturday's early kick-off in the Championship won't be as one-sided as the market suggests, says Andy Tongue...

Wolves v Birmingham
Saturday 1 November
12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Wolves

Kenny Jackett's impressive outfit are up to third after coming from behind to win 2-1 at Leeds last week. They have suffered just two defeats this season - both against supposedly lesser opposition - away to Rotherham and home to Huddersfield. Jackett's side have been very strong at Molineux however with five wins, a draw and just that one loss.

Bakary Sako has netted seven times in 12 games and shown that he is a real threat at this level. He missed the win at Elland Road, though, and faces a late fitness test on his groin injury before kick-off.

Classy winger James Henry has been in fine form, the heart of much of what his side create as well as chipping in with valuable goals, including the equaliser last week. Half-time substitute Leon Clarke then netted the winner and is in line to start here.

Birmingham

Lee Clark had seemingly been on borrowed time at St. Andrews for most of his time there and the inevitable occurred after the home defeat to Bolton at the start of October. However, more humiliation was heaped on them in the next home game when they were hammered 8-0 by Bournemouth.

Only their away form saved them from relegation by the skin of their teeth last season and the 3-1 win at Millwall is their sole victory since mid-August leaving the Blues rooted in 23rd spot with just hapless Blackpool below them.

Former Blues defender Gary Rowett has earned plenty of plaudits for the job he did at Burton Albion and will get the support of the St Andrews faithful but he faces a tough task to turn things around. There are problems at both ends of the pitch - his new charges have scored just 12 goals in the 14 league games this season and, not surprisingly after last Saturday's thumping, have conceded more than any other side.

Match Odds

Wolves are 1.564/7 which is plenty short enough about any side in the Championship. With the exception of poor Blackpool, anybody can beat anyone else on a given day so I'll be giving that price a wide berth.

We know what instant effect a new manager can have on a side if he's the right man for the job - see Kit Symons at Fulham and Neil Lennon at Bolton as opposed to Darko Milanic at Leeds. Rowett looks the perfect choice for Birmingham and you would expect to see a much-improved performance from the visitors here. After last Saturday it can't get any worse!

Add in the fact that this is a derby clash - not quite the biggest for the two sides' admittedly but with Villa and West Brom in the Premier League this is the most important match of the season for local bragging rights at this level. Wolves may have a good record at home this season but they rarely win by more than the odd goal and Jackett will be expecting a real fight here. I'm happy to lay his men at 1.564/7 and that's the recommended bet here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unders is available to back at 2.186/5 which looks generous given the strong trends in these early kick-offs - seven out of the eight so far this season have gone under the 2.5 line. I've mentioned before that I think the unfamiliar lunchtime start means the game seems to often pass sides before the players can really get stuck into it, especially if half the crowd are half-asleep after a big Friday night too!

The price is probably a reflection of the eight that Birmingham shipped last week. That has to be seen in isolation as an abberation though. I'm pretty sure they will fight tooth and nail here to impress the new boss in what should be a cup tie-like atmosphere so am happily taking that 2.186/5.

Recommended Bets
Lay Wolves @ 1.564/7
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.186/5

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 45 pts
Returned: 43.85 pts
P/L: -1.15 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets