Against All Odds: Brazilian duo to go goal crazy

It's goals on the menu tonight

The action comes from South America for Paul Robinson today as he thinks that Luverdense and Avai will serve up a few goals.

Luverdense v Avai
Tuesday October 28, 23:50 GMT

Luverdense have had a decent campaign considering they have only just been promoted from Serie C. With half a dozen league games to go, they are nicely situated in mid-table, a healthy eight points clear of the relegation zone. 

Home has been where the heart is for Maico Gacho's side as 31 of their 43 points have come in front of their own fans. They've racked up 10 wins and a draw at Passo das Emas, but they have lost on five occasions. Interestingly, three of those defeats came in their last six outings there, and they kept just one clean sheet during that period.

There matches this year are averaging 2.31 goals each time, with 13 of the 32 rewarding over 2.5 backers - including two of their last five in front of their own fans.

Avai need to pick up at least a point to revive their season. Despite falling to three successive defeats - five in their last six - they are still clinging on to a top four spot. The chasing pack is closing in though, so if they want promotion, the slump needs to end.

In all fairness to 'Leo da Ilha' or 'Lion of the Island' to you and me, they did face some tough opposition during that period. Joinville and Ponte Preta are the top two in the league, Atletico GO are sixth, ABC recently beat Cruzeiro in the Copa do Brasil and Nautico came down from the top flight last year. The Santa Catarina based club may have lost their last three on the road, but prior to that they were 10 unbeaten - winning six of them. 

As far as the goals go, with 42 scored and 34 conceded, their matches this term are averaging 2.38 goals each time. Half a dozen of their last eight away games have finished with three or more being scored and they shipped seven in their last three.

The visitors really need to go for it tonight as they are slipping down the table at the worst possible time. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.784/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.      

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Luverdense v Avai @ 1.794/5

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 290 pts
Returned: 304.28 pts
P/L: + 14.28 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)