QPR v Liverpool: Poor defences and returning Sturridge should make for entertaining spectacle

If fit this man can get Liverpool back on track

Liverpool's main man Daniel Sturridge looks likely to return to first team action at Loftus Road on Sunday and last year's 22 goal hero should make the difference, says Joe Dyer

QPR v Liverpool
Sunday October 18
KO 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1 

QPR
These are tough times once again in west London. Two years since their last disastrous dalliance with the top-flight and Rangers are already looking up at 19 teams above them in the table, though only goal difference keeps them from rising above Burnley and Newcastle. 

QPR's woes have mainly come on the road where they lost all four, conceding 12. At home it's one win, one defeat and one draw and they are far more parsimonious, giving up three goals to their Premier League opponents.  Victory on Sunday would be very welcome - Aston Villa are at Loftus Road a week on Monday and Harry Redknapp's side then face Chelsea and Manchester City on successive Saturdays. No wonder Redknapp is the 1.855/6 favourite to be the next Premier League manager out of a job. 

Joey Barton is the only injury doubt for Redknapp to contend with. 

Liverpool
Whether it's mixing Champions League with domestic football, adjusting to life after Luis Suarez or a mixture of both, Liverpool have been stuttering a little this season. A return of 10 points from seven isn't disastrous with another top-four finish still a possibility, but defeat to Basel has left them with the pressure on in Europe. 

Key man Daniel Sturridge, missing since a 3-0 win at Spurs on August 31, is due to return for this match and he really could make the difference. Liverpool won two of three with the England striker, losing only to Manchester City. Without him the Anfield side have won just once in the Premier League and were defeated by both West Ham and Aston Villa. 

Summer signing Dejan Lovren and central defence partner Mamadou Sakho are doubts.    

Match Odds
Poor as QPR have been this season, focusing solely on their home form (one win, one draw, one defeat) and Liverpool's away record (one win in three) makes the 1.625/8 available on the away side collecting all three points look a touch short. 

Much hinges on Sturridge - his scoring rate of 32 goals in 40 Liverpool appearances suggests a near world-class talent and if he's back at full fitness you'd be a confident backer of the away side. But it's certainly risky to plunge into an odds-on price if that's your only rationale for supporting the away side. 

Only the true value backers would get behind a team as unreliable as QPR, even at 6.611/2. An Opta stat points out how poor they are under Redknapp in the top flight, winning just five of his 32 Premier League games (D10 L17). The draw is 4.3100/30. 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
These two have kept one clean sheet each this season. Liverpool's games have seen 20 goals, QPR's 19. We should be entertained in the early Sunday kick-off. 

Of course, the Betfair markets have that factored in with overs trading around 1.748/11. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 2.789/5.

As Spurs season ticket holder Dan Thomas points out, Mario Balotelli played his best game for Liverpool when alongside Sturridge in the Reds' 3-0 win at White Hart Lane. With Raheem Sterling fresh and Adam Lallana looking back to full fitness there is plenty of menace in the away attack. 

At the other end, even the goal-shy QPR attack will fancy their chances of finding the back of the net against Simon Mignolet's and the visiting back four. Three of their four (!) Premier League goals have come at home while Liverpool average two conceded on the road. Opta tell us that the Reds have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League matches.

Sidemarket Selection - Match Odds/Over 2.5 Goals Double
While not overly confident in Liverpool, they do look a far stronger side with Sturridge in their lineup. Add in two porous defences and I'd rather invest in an away win, coupled with Over 2.5 Goals, at odds-against than take odds-on prices on either of the singles. 

Recommended Bet
1pt Back Liverpool/Over 2.5 Goal double @ 2.747/4 or better 

Joe Dyer's Premier League P&L

Staked: 9 pts
Returned: 9.14 pts
P/L: +0.14 pts

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