Ligue 1 Betting: Why Lyon and Marseille are the smart bet to serve up some Sunday night magic

Marseille's Andre-Pierre Gignac is Ligue 1's 10-goal top scorer

On a run of nine winners from his last 13 tips, James Eastham picks out the value selections in France's top flight this weekend...

Toulouse v Lens (9th v 20th)
Fri, 19:30 BST

There's one simple reason why Lens are bottom of the table: they were banned from buying players during the transfer window. They're essentially playing in Ligue 1 with the same squad that won promotion from Ligue 2 last season, minus a couple of experienced heads (centre-back Alaeddine Yahia and striker Danijel Ljuboja) and one outstanding young goalkeeper (Alphonse Areola) who walked away.

Youngsters that would normally get the odd game have taken on important roles. And, in some cases, they're not ready. Dimitri Cavare (aged 19), Jean-Philippe Gbamin (19), Wylan Cyprien (19), Baptiste Guillaume (19), Benjamin Bourigeaud (20) and Abdoul Ba (20) are doing their best - but it's asking too much of Lens to stay in this division unless they're able to buy new players in January.

Lens' major problem this weekend is in goal. Last season, Areola was no. 1, but he's now at Bastia. Last season's no. 2, Rudy Riou, is this season's no. 1. Riou is absent this weekend. That means 19-year-old Valentin Belon - not even on the radar last season - will make his senior debut.

Lens are also below-strength in defence - Gbamin and the squad's most experienced centre-back, Ahmed Kantari, are suspended. So the visitors face an almighty challenge. Toulouse's six-goal leading scorer Wissam Ben Yedder will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Lens' depleted defence.

Toulouse's price has come in this week because of Lens' goalkeeping news. They are now 1.68/13, which is still worth considering. For bigger odds, however, back Toulouse 1.0 Asian handicap. With this wager, you'll make a small profit if Toulouse win by one goal and a bigger profit if Toulouse win by two goals or more (for a rundown on how Asian handicap betting works, click here).

Recommended Bet
Toulouse -1.0 Asian handicap @ 1.9520/21

PSG v Bordeaux (2nd v 3rd)
Sat, 16:00 BST

PSG go into this game without a centre-forward. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is injured and Edinson Cavani suspended. Despite the capital club's vast riches, there's no-one else in the squad that's a natural in that position.

At a push Jean-Christophe Bahebeck can lead the attack, but at club level and for France at various age group levels he has always been more comfortable playing as a wide or floating attacker than an anchor point. Ezequiel Lavezzi is back from injury and can operate centrally but has little experience of doing so for PSG.

The concern in attack is one reason I'm willing to oppose a comfortable PSG victory this weekend. Another is the fact PSG have already dropped points at home twice this season - they drew 1-1 against Lyon (Sep 21) and Monaco (Oct 5).

Bordeaux were poor at home to Caen (1-1) last Sunday afternoon but I expect a much better performance this weekend. On Monday morning manager Willy Sagnol held a clear-the-air inquest, and the players then held a meeting among themselves to try to work out why their standards have slipped after a bright opening to the season. Under Sagnol the Bordeaux players are a close-knit bunch so those discussions behind closed doors should bear fruit on the pitch on Saturday afternoon.

PSG are as short as 1.4840/85 to win the game. By backing Bordeaux +1.0&+1.5 Asian handicap, you'll make money as long as Bordeaux avoid defeat by two or more goals.

Recommended Bet
Bordeaux +1.0&+1.5 Asian handicap @ 1.9520/21

Lyon v Marseille (4th v 1st)
Sun, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2

Marseille go into this game on a run of eight straight victories but this promises to be their toughest test of the season yet.

Lyon are one of Ligue 1's improving sides thanks to players returning from injury and a lighter workload following elimination from Europe in August. Hubert Fournier's side have picked up 14pts from their last possible 18, including a 5-1 win over Montpellier last weekend (we correctly backed Lyon to claim all 3pts).

Lyon and Marseille have Ligue 1's best two attacks: Marseille have averaged 2.5 goals a game, Lyon 2.0. That makes Over 2.5 Goals an obvious wager at 1.9110/11. Both teams have defended well, too - only PSG have conceded fewer goals - but I would put that down to the fact there are so few top-quality attacking sides in Ligue 1 this season that these two defences have rarely been tested.

Marcelo Bielsa may change his style for one week only. Marseille's high-tempo, high-pressing game and the manager's insistence that players attack in sixes and sevens rather than twos and threes tends to lead to open, exciting matches. Perhaps he will settle for a point away from home against a better calibre of opposition than Marseille have faced so far.

But that's unlikely. Under Bielsa, Marseille have been programmed to attack. I expect that to continue, meaning we should have an exciting encounter of chances and goals.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9110/11

2014-15 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 31pts
Returned: 35.86pts
P/L: +4.86pts