Aguero can help fire City to comfortable victory
The blue half of Manchester ruled over the north Londoners 11-1 on aggregate in 2013/14 and despite a change of personnel in the Spurs dugout, Lewis Jones is predicting more of the same as Premier League football returns to our screens...
Man City v Tottenham
Saturday, KO 12:45
Live on BT Sport
Manchester City
This is the time of year when City shake off their summer hangovers and start going full throttle towards the Premier League title, destroying everything in their wake.
From their last 11 fixtures in October, City have lost just once (a 2-1 away defeat to Chelsea last season) and won the rest, including their most recent 2-0 victory over Aston Villa earlier this month.
As Michael Cox points out in his Big Match Tactical View preview, the restructuring of the international week means players now play at vastly different times and are therefore in completely different situations in terms of recovery and fitness.
For example, Pablo Zabaleta and Sergio Aguero played in Hong Kong for Argentina on Saturday, so their inclusion is far from guaranteed. Yaya Toure is a doubt, too. He is due to return to training on Friday from the Ivory Coast and his fitness will be assessed then.
Tottenham
The Spurs squad are slowly but surely coming around to Mauricio Pochettino's tactical ideas and a run of no wins in four games has been quickly turned around into four games unbeaten.
Pochettino got one over on his former employers' last time out, squeaking past Southampton 1-0 in a tight game. The defeat ended Saints' run of six straight wins in all competitions at the hands of the man who led them to an impressive eighth last season.
The last thing the Argentine needed was an international break after such a confidence boosting victory and his love for the European qualifiers won't have strengthened after the news that Hugo Lloris and Nacer Chadli both returned from duty carrying injuries.
The key duo will face a fitness test ahead of the game but Kyle Walker and Kyle Naughton are still unavailable for the selection.
Match Odds
Looking back at recent meetings between these two at the Etihad Stadium doesn't make pleasant reading for Spurs fanatics.
The Blue Moon brigade have won the last four meetings but are on a current run of two home games without a Premier League win. The last time that they went three top flight home games without a victory was back in November 2010.
As mentioned, October is when the City steam train hits full speed and Tottenham, who have not won an away match against the current Champions League qualifiers in the last 15 fixtures, look incapable of putting up a resistance.
Smashing into 1.491/2 shots is not really my style, but for those that like hammering the short prices, a City win looks a strong contender for the weekend banker.
Little rays of hope for an away win at 8.07/1 can be drawn from Opta, who tell us that Tottenham have secured 20 wins against Manchester City in the Premier League - only against Everton (20) have they won as many. Meanwhile, the draw can be backed at 4.84/1.
Those two prices are unlikely to cop a return though: a home win has to be the cornerstone of all bets for this predicted one-sided clash. Let's go find some value.
Man City -1
Backing the current Premier League champions in this particular market in their home games last season was nearly the equivalent of printing money.
They successfully broke through the -1 handicap (won by two goals or more) in 14 of their 19 home games, averaging a relentless total winning supremacy total of +2.63 per home game. The second best record in that department was free-scoring Liverpool, who racked up +1.84 in their fixtures at Anfield.
City bounded clear of such handicap by many lengths in both Premier League matches against the north Londoners last term, dishing out 6-0 and 5-1 hammerings.
Although the scoreboard is unlikely to go that blue heavy again this time around, punters should be very confident of seeing maximum return on their -1 investment here at 2.35n/a.
City will score in this game, that's nearly a certainty. The hosts have scored in 67 of their last 69 home Premier League matches while Spurs haven't kept a clean sheet home or away against one of the top five (Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal) in the last 22 fixtures.
Pochettino has added a much more defensively sound base to this Tottenham team but as shown in the 3-0 home defeat to Liverpool, when faced with pace, power and attacking precision this wobbly defence can crumble as it did against the big boys on multiple occasions last season.
In the last nine meetings against the so-called big-five, Spurs lost by two or more goals on six occasions, racking up a total aggregate score of 30 goals conceded and just four scored.
Those scars must be still fresh in the memory for that back-four and the Etihad Stadium is not a place to have a crisis of confidence. Fill your boots, Sergio, Edin and David.
Recommended Bet
Back Man City -1 @ 2.35n/a (4pts)
Lewis Jones Premier League P/L
Staked: 20pts
Returned: 23.6pts
P/L: +3.6pts
Vote for Betfair in the Football Blogging Awards!
We have been nominated in the Gambling category for the 2014 FBAs. Vote for us on Twitter, on Facebook or at the FBA website.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий