County's bright young manager Shaun Derry
Alan Dudman is hoping Notts County can reward backers this Saturday as they entertain low-scoring Walsall, whilst the draw at Sheffield United might be the most interesting bet in the Yorkshire derby...
Sheffield United 1.865/6 v Barnsley 4.77/2, the draw 3.9n/a
Bramall Lane is the scene for the big Yorkshire derby this Saturday, and the hosts are odds-on to maintain their recent sequence of five unbeaten and three straight wins. If you are taking the short price on Sheffield United, you also have a team that are back to their best in defence - and they've kept three successive clean sheets too.
Blades boss Nigel Clough maintained that his men have been slowly 'getting there' this season (they were title favourites in the summer), and those shut-outs have enabled them to move up to fifth in the table.
Barnsley meanwhile have been conceding too many goals, but away from home they have played really well against Peterborough, Notts County and most recently Bristol City. Tykes boss Danny Wilson said after Saturday's 2-2 draw against Bristol City: "We came up against a team that was well clear in League One and there was nothing between the sides."
This does highlight how close this division is, and recently the top teams have been slipping up. The question is can Barnsley be strong enough here to warrant a back of 4.707/2? Maybe not, but the fact they are sitting where they are in the table is more to do with consistency (or lack of it) rather than talent.
Sheffield United are using a three-man midfield with centre-backs Paddy McCarthy and Chris Basham (who has dropped back from the middle) proving to be a strong partnership. In fact, the former has been really commanding in some superb displays, which has helped in their recent fine defensive run.
I'm more tempted by the draw as a trading angle here, and despite the fact that Barnsley have been involved in plenty of over 2.5 goals matches recently (seven hitting the target from nine), their away game has overall been a lot tighter.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.9n/a
Peterborough United 1.625/8 v Scunthorpe United 6.05/1, the draw 4.1n/a
Now this column is going through a bit of a bad trot, and the psyche of a punter is truly tested when things are completely going against you. I can count ending Leyton Orient's fine unbeaten away record of 13 (throw in a red card too), and the hex on Swindon etc etc. But the real test is how you respond, and I must admit, seeing the column nearly ten points down doesn't lend me to go 'all in' on odds-on shots - whilst at the same time avoiding chasing.
I was tempted to lay Sheffield United at 1.865/6 above, but they are in great nick and keeping clean sheets. Posh aren't neither of those at the moment, and yet they trade at a shorter price, which certainly makes them lay material this Saturday.
I put up Peterborough at Crewe recently, and they lost 1-0 whilst trading at 1.9010/11 before the match - I suppose being reduced to nine men didn't help. But Saturday's 3-2 loss at Coventry (a side out of form) was worrying. Manager Darren Ferguson revealed his disappointment by saying that the players now owe him 'big time'. Their passing just went to pieces at the Ricoh, and they wilted under pressure according to Fergie junior.
United have lost two of their last five, but their home record at London Road is strong. However, last term Posh went through a bad blip in results, the best time to get on those type of runs is at the beginning at short prices (which is never easy to do), and at twos-on, the cost won't be too expensive.
In Scunthorpe we are hoping for the bottom of the table side out-performing their position; and this could easily be achieved. Since Mark Robins took over from Russ Wilcox they have drawn two out of three, and the only defeat came on Saturday in the 1-0 loss to in-form Notts County (a penalty on 89 minutes).
The players seem to be giving a lot of effort to Robins, and they do have game-changers such as Gary McSheffrey and Paddy Madden. The fact they played so well and restricted County to one goal means it might be worth a half-stake bet on Scunthorpe, or the braver lay on the hosts.
Recommended Bet
Lay Peterborough @ 1.625/8
Notts County 2.6413/8 v Walsall 3.052/1, the draw 3.412/5
County are the form team at the moment in League One, and dare I say the biggest surprise of the season under rookie boss Shaun Derry. And the fact we can back a side that have achieved six successive wins at around 6/4 is fairly staggering.
The more I look at the price, the more I can't understand it. Walsall are perhaps in a false position, but they were the joint lowest scorers in the league prior to Saturday's 1-0 victory against Chesterfield. That ended a three-game losing sequence, but they do struggle to score goals, and yet they are fairly evenly matched on the market.
It's time to bow down to the church of Derry though, as this is some transformation from the side that were down on its knees under Chris Kiwomya just 12 months ago. I like Derry, and have always enjoyed him on the radio or in his current role. He talks of honesty and his players need to 'get in peoples faces'. There's a bit of his old boss Neil Warnock in that, and he gets his men playing for him.
That's not to say his method isn't all old style blood and thunder. He has mentioned he likes wingers (but not luxury players), and recent QPR signing Michael Petrasso had a terrific match at Barnsley only a week ago, and he looks a proper wide man in every sense. And that was the mark of the new manager, as their first-half performance was truly shocking, but they turned it around after the break.
I would certainly be looking at a tight game knowing Walsall (whose last seven matches have resulted in five under 2.5 goals affairs). Aided by County's terrific home record of WWDDW I would also throw in a 1-0 victory for the hosts.
Recommended Bets
Back Notts County to win @ 2.6413/8
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
-9.30 pts
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