Arsene Wenger could witness his side score plenty on Saturday
There are half a dozen Premier League games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday, and using a combination of Opta stats, current form, and gut feelings, Mike Norman recommended a wager in each of them...
Arsenal 1.282/7 v Burnley 14.5n/a; The Draw 6.411/2
Arsenal have won just three of their opening nine league games which represents one of their worst starts to a season under Arsene Wenger, but on the flip side they've lost just once, and that was to league leaders Chelsea so there's no disgrace there.
There really isn't much we can say about this game; Burnley are awful and Arsenal should record a straightforward win. The only problem we have is determining the best way to profit.
Sean Dyche's men sit bottom of the table and are still without a league win this term. Opta tell us that the Clarets have conceded 12 goals in their last four matches, and when you consider none of those games were against a top class side then you have to really fear for them at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday.
The Gunners are generally very strong at home (unbeaten in 22 Premier League games) and they've scored at least two goals in two-thirds of their league games this season. I will be backing them to score at least four this weekend.
Recommended Bet
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 4.3100/30 (best bet)
Chelsea 1.21/5 v QPR 21.020/1; The Draw 8.615/2
I'll probably fall off a cliff backing Chelsea to win without conceding; already this season I've backed them to win by this method against Swansea and Crystal Palace in this column, and as well as conceding to those two teams Jose Mourinho's men have also conceded against Everton, Man City, Man Utd, Schalke, Bolton, and Shrewsbury.
But like all good fools I'm going in again, and it's mainly because of what I witnessed on Monday night at Loftus Road.
Talk of QPR's 2-0 win over Aston Villa being a very good performance and a good tactical display was exaggerated in my opinion. There's a huge difference between allowing the opposition to have the ball (Villa had 70% possession at one stage) and not being able to retain possession yourself.
Villa are a poor side and are devoid of confidence but they looked by far the most comfortable team on the ball, and I can't help but feel that if QPR had have played a top team on Monday night then they'd have suffered another defeat.
So this game is all about Chelsea for me. I can't see Harry Redknapp's men causing the Blues any problems whatsoever but I'm not confident that the home side will record a big win either. So it's a Chelsea win to nil for me, yet again!
Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.84/5
Everton 1.784/5 v Swansea 5.49/2; The Draw 4.03/1
Everton have seemingly hit form in recent weeks, recording back-to-back wins over Aston Villa and Burnley while scoring six goals in the process. But I wouldn't be too quick to read too much into those two results; Villa are woefully out of form and the Clarets are the worst side in the Premier League.
Still, you can do no more than win and the confidence within the Toffees squad should have been boosted at least, and with Ross Barkley back to fitness there's a buzz around Goodison Park again.
But what stands out ahead of this game is Everton's terrific record againt Swansea. Opta tell us that they've never lost to the Swans in the league (18 games), and from a player perspective Toffees striker Romelu Lukaku has scored three goals in his five league appearances against Garry Monk's men.
Swansea ended a five-game winless run against Leicester last Saturday but then lost - rather unfortunately perhaps - on Merseyside in midweek when going down 2-1 to Liverpool in the League Cup. I'm not overly confident, but I have to make Everton my selection to win this encounter.
Recommended Bet
Back Everton to Win @ 1.784/5
Hull 4.1n/a v Southampton 2.111/10; The Draw 3.613/5
How can anyone confidently oppose Southampton at the moment? You can't is the honest answer, especially when they're up against a mid-table side and not one of the big guns.
The Saints have won nine of their last 10 league and cup games, their only loss coming at White Hart Lane when they went down narrowly 1-0. What's impressive in this current run of superb form however is that Ronald Koeman's men have recorded five of those wins on the road including at Arsenal in the League Cup, and at two sides currently in the top six in the Premier League - Swansea and West Ham.
Hull have just earned two very respectable draws at Arsenal and Liverpool but the fact remains that Steve Bruce's men have won just one of their last eight league and cup games. They've kept two clean sheets in that spell but in the other six games they conceded an alarming 15 goals.
Southampton are in excellent form, they're scoring goals for fun - 12 in their last three outings - and they also have a superb recent record over Hull. Opta tell us that the Saints have won the last four league meetings against the Tigers.
Recommended Bet
Back Southampton to Win @ 2.111/10
Leicester 2.3411/8 v West Brom 3.412/5; The Draw 3.55/2
I have no idea who will win this game so let's try and bag the hat-trick of Over 3.5 Goals wagers when West Brom are involved.
That recommended bet served me well against both Manchester United and Crystal Palace (both games ended 2-2) and it means that the Baggies' last six league and cup games have all gone over the 2.5 goals mark with two-thirds of them witnessing at least four goals.
West Brom travel to Leicester on Saturday and that's great news because league games at the King Power Stadium have averaged 4.5 goals per match. All four of the Foxes' home league games have resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet and the Leicester faithful have already witnessed a 5-3 and two 2-2 draws.
There isn't much more we can add really other than that both sides will see this as a winnable encounter and that should allow for an entertaining affair - hopefully one full of goals.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.211/5
Stoke 2.427/5 v West Ham 3.39/4; The Draw 3.55/2
This is perhaps the hardest game of the weekend to call in the top flight. Stoke are generally hard to beat at the Britannia Stadium but they've already lost two of their four league games and suffered another home defeat in the League Cup in midweek.
But Mark Hughes' men have conceded only three goals in those four home league games suggesting they are still tough to beat on home soil, they're just not scoring enough goals at the other end.
West Ham have been in fine form of late, winning four of their last five Premier League games including tremendous victories over Liverpool and Manchester City. Away from home however their only scalps so far have been against Burnley and Crystal Palace, but as I've said already in this column you can do no more than beat what's put in front of you.
It's a very tough game to call, and perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit.
The Hammers have been scoring regularly of late thanks largely to Diafra Sakho who should be fit for Saturday's game. Opta tell us that West Ham have scored in eight successive league games and it's no surprise given the threat in attack they now carry. Stewart Downing has been outstanding this term and he could be key to creating more chances this weekend.
Stoke are not a side usually associated with high-scoring games but I have a hunch this will be an exception, especially if West Ham can get on the scoresheet early like they have been doing this term.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 45 pts
Returned: 49.50 pts
P/L: + 4.50 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
Vote for Betfair in the Football Blogging Awards!
We have been nominated in the Gambling category for the 2014 FBAs. Vote for us on Twitter, on Facebook or at the FBA website.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий