Valencia Open 500 Betting: Simon and Kohlschreiber the Valencia value

Will Gilles Simon be all smiles this week?

The 2014 ATP World Tour season is into its final month and Sean Calvert is hoping that he can find a big-priced winner at the Valencia Open for the second year running...

Indoor tennis in Valencia and Basel at the Valencia Open 500 and Swiss Indoors are our two events this week and the former tournament seems the most intriguing one from a betting viewpoint.

Held at the Ciutat de les Arts i les Cincies we had a nice winner here a year ago with Mikhail Youzhny and it looks equally tough to call this year, with a few notable names chasing points in the race for London.

Conditions here are on the slow side, as the Greenset surfaces tend to be, and so as to be as similar to those in Bercy and the O2 in the remaining weeks of the year.

Both US Open finalists, Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic have withdrawn - the latter presumably because he's now qualified for the year end championships - and tournament director Juan Carlos Ferrero has seen many a Spanish winner here over the years.

Eight times in the last 11 years this event has had a Spanish winner and among those representing the home nation in 2014 are two-time former champion David Ferrer, 2004 champ Fernando Verdasco, 2011 winner Marcel Granollers, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Tommy Robredo and Feli Lopez.

Of course, this event used to be held on clay, hence the amount of Spanish champions, but there's still been a Spaniard in the final in four of the five years it's been an indoor event.

Ferrer and Andy Murray have been drawn together in the top half, alongside Youzhny, Bautista Agut, Kevin Anderson and Philipp Kohlschreiber and it looks a pretty decent draw for Murray.

His price is a little skinny though and he may be tired after winning Vienna and I'm happy to take a chance on Kohlschreiber at a big-looking 40.039/1 in the top half.

The German should be quite fresh after a light schedule since the US Open due to a shoulder injury and with a little more belief at the vital times he has the beating of both Murray and Ferrer.

Kohlschreiber yet again blew a lead against Ferrer last week in Vienna, while he had every chance of taking down Murray at the French Open, but ended up losing 12-10 in the fifth.

He'll need to break a tradition of not having made a final this late in the year, but at a price like 40.039/1 it's worth chancing that this could be the year.

The obvious pick for my money in the bottom half is Gilles Simon, who was a little unlucky to walk away with only the runners-up trophy in Shanghai and if he's fit he looks like he has a great chance.

A tough first round awaits Simon in the form of the mercurial Alex Dolgopolov, who, should he win that one could be a dark horse, having made a final here before.

But Simon looks the most likely to emerge from a half that includes John Isner, Berdych, Robredo, Lopez, and not a great deal else.

Isner has never been past the last-16 in Valencia, while Robredo is no late season man either and has no sort of record either here or at this time of the year.

Lopez has a shocking record in this tournament of 2-9 and looks like a long season that has seen him acheive a career-best ranking has taken its toll on his back.

Over in Switzerland Roger Federer heads the field again, looking for his sixth Swiss Indoors title and the world number two may find Grigor Dimitrov his toughest rival in the top half of the draw.

Stan Wawrinka never seems to perform well at home and is a nightmare to try and win with at the moment and with Dimitrov having played a long week in Stockholm Federer looks likely to make the final again.

The bottom half is far more interesting with Rafa Nadal playing for reasons best known to himself with an appendix problem and that brings others very much into the equation.

Also held on a Greenset surface the speed here tends to vary, but it will probably be slowish, and there might be a shock finalist from the bottom half.

Nadal has to be opposed, while Ernests Gulbis has a shoulder problem and Milos Raonic can't be fully match fit after being ill for much of the last fortnight.

It could well open up for someone like David Goffin, who's a 26.025/1 shot, but for me the better options lie in Valencia.

Recommended Bets (both back to lay)
Back Simon at 17.016/1
Back Kohlschreiber at 40.039/1