Against All Odds: Fortuna to favour the brave

Can we start the week with a cheeky winner in Germany?

The week begins in Germany for Paul Robinson as he thinks the Bundesliga 2 clash between Fortuna Dusseldorf and St Pauli will be high-scoring.

Fortuna Dusseldorf v St Pauli
Monday October 20, 19:15 BST

Fortuna Dusseldorf are up in fourth place in the German second tier following a run of six unbeaten matches - four of which were victories. The latest was a 4-1 demolition of Darmstadt 98 and while any win of that nature is impressive, one away from home against a top six club is a bit special.

It's now 18 goals for Oliver Reck's side this term but things aren't quite as healthy at the other end. A total of 11 conceded in nine outings has their matches averaging 3.22 goals each time, with four of them finishing with four or more being scored.

St Pauli managed to climb to 12th prior to the international break thanks to an upturn in form that saw them take seven points from a possible nine. It could have been the maximum quota but they blew a 2-0 lead at FSV Frankfurt and actually needed a late goal themselves to level it up at 3-3.

As far as the goals go, with 11 scored and 15 conceded so far this season, their fixtures are averaging 2.89 goals per 90 minutes. Over 2.5 backers would have been rewarded six times out of nine and while Thomas Meggle's side have only been involved in one game that finished with four or more being scored, they have shipped 11 goals in four trips away from Millerntor-Stadion.

I can't see anything but goals in this one, so with under 3.5 trading at around the 1.4840/85 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Fortuna Dusseldorf v St Pauli @ 1.4840/85

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 282 pts
Returned: 295.79 pts
P/L: + 13.79 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)