Premier League Stats Review: New-look Hammers good value to continue fast start

Stewart Downing: Revitalised this season

In his latest stats-based look at the best bets of the weekend, Andrew Atherley says the numbers add up well for West Ham at Stoke on Saturday even without star striker Diafra Sakho...

It is safe to say West Ham's good start to the season is no fluke - and not just because of last week's 2-1 home win over reigning champions Manchester City.

Yet it is arguable that the odds makers have not caught up with the Hammers, who have been shortening in the past couple of days but still look good value for a positive result away to Stoke on Saturday.

The Hammers are an attractive 3.39/4 for the win but the best way to back them is on the Draw No Bet at 2.285/4.

Leicester are an example of a team that has been unable to build on a good result against a top club - one point from four games since their 5-3 home win over Manchester United - but West Ham's form has much more substance.

The new-look Hammers are virtually unrecognisable from last season's model. Where they previously spluttered and occasionally stalled, now they are fast, exciting and much more reliable.

Sam Allardyce deserves great credit for the transformation, having weathered intense criticism from Hammers fans and gone on to defy the stereotype of his teams as dour long-ball merchants. Strikers Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia arrived in the summer - along with midfielders Alex Song and Morgan Amalfitano - and Allardyce has been able to change to a fluid and entertaining style.

Goals are the key to the turnaround. Already, after just nine games, West Ham's 17-goal tally has taken them almost halfway to last season's total of 40. Only Everton and Chelsea matches have a higher goals average than the Hammers' 3.22 goals per game, while Allardyce's side are joint-top with Everton for games with over 2.5 goals (seven out of nine).

Sakho has hogged the headlines with his burst of seven goals in seven consecutive games but, even though he is now injured, it is often a mistake to ascribe a team's form to one player. Only two of Sakho's goals have been West Ham's opener and just one has been the first goal in a match, which indicates Allardyce's team are capable of creating and scoring without him. The other new arrivals have been important too, along with the revitalisation of Stewart Downing as an attacking midfielder.

The Hammers' new-found scoring power gives them a chance of upsets like the one against Manchester City but, most significantly, is proving too much for the majority of Premier League teams. Taking out their results against big-six teams, West Ham's record this season is W3 D1 L1 and the defeat was against second-placed Southampton.

If the Hammers get on the scoresheet at Stoke, as their record suggests they will, the hosts will struggle to beat them. Stoke are joint-third lowest scorers in the Premier League with just eight goals in nine games and they have won only once this season when conceding (W1 D2 L4).  

Overall, under Mark Hughes, Stoke's win rate when conceding is just 25% and that gives West Ham a good chance of taking at least a point. With due respect to Stoke's home record of only three defeats in 17 against teams outside the big six, West Ham on the draw no bet looks the best value.

****

Manchester City still have the stats in their favour at home to elite opponents and they look good value for the win at 1.9420/21 in Sunday's derby clash with Manchester United.

City have already played three home matches against big-six opponents and their only dropped points were against leaders Chelsea, the toughest visitors they are likely to face. The quality of their attacking play at the Etihad was evident in clear-cut wins over Liverpool (3-1) and Tottenham (4-1).

It was a similar story last season when Chelsea (with a 1-0 win) were the only big-six team to stop Manuel Pellegrini's team at the Etihad. Under Pellegrini, City have won six out of eight against big-six teams and scored at least twice against every opponent apart from Chelsea, with five of the six wins being by two or more goals.

Leaving aside the Chelsea games, all of City's other matches against big-six opponents under Pellegrini have had over 2.5 goals, which is strongly indicated but is short enough at 1.684/6.

Altogether, since becoming part of a big six in the 2009-10 season, City have a home win rate of 64% in elite clashes and 57% of those home games have had over 2.5 goals - figures that are impressive enough in any case but are on an upward trend.

Recommended Bets
Back West Ham on Draw No Bet v Stoke at 2.285/4 (1pt)
Back Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.9420/21 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 22 pts
Returned: 25.26 pts
P/L: +3.26 pts