Anderlecht v Arsenal: Home discomforts mean Gunners can be ahead at the break

Oh Danny Boy: Welbeck to lead Arsenal charge

After yet more domestic troubles its back to Champions League duty for Arsenal and Lewis Jones is backing them to breeze past the Belgians...

Anderlecht v Arsenal
Wednesday, KO 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Anderlecht

Belgian champions for a 33rd time last season, Anderlecht have become one of those sides you perennially see in the Champions League group stages who've got no chance of going further.

A 3-0 loss at home to Borussia Dortmund last time out indicates that that's going to be the case again, and it seems to have affected their domestic form given that they've drawn their last two since that hammering.

Whatever the opposite of a European fortress is, the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium is pretty much it. Anderlecht have lost their last five Champions League home matches there, and their last three at home to English teams.

Arsenal

Despite some summer additions which had Gunners fans licking their lips it has become a case of 'same old, same old' for Arsenal, for which the draw with Hull at the weekend makes it just three wins from 12 matches in all competitions.

The makeshift defence fielded in that game will at least be bolstered by the return of Calum Chambers from suspension, but it once again all looks to be a little cobbled together.

On the plus side, both Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck have managed to find some form, with the latter now boasting eight strikes from his last 10 for club and country since he sealed his move to the Emirates.

Sanchez has six in his last nine in an Arsenal shirt and is at least beginning to pay back some of the transfer fee that the Gunners shelled out for him to Barcelona, even if the results aren't following suit.

Match Odds

Every Arsenal season might feature more let downs than a mother clearing up the balloons after a kid's birthday party, but at 1.834/5 here they might just be on the right side of backable if odds-on shots are your thing.

The reasons are probably more to do with the weakness of the opposition more than anything else, but as a Champions League veteran, Wenger hasn't seen his Arsenal side lose two of their first three matches of a group phase since 2003, something he is threatened with here after the opening night defeat in Dortmund.

That of course opens up the possibility of the draw at 4.03/1, but Anderlecht have been so poor at home in this competition that even that looks beyond them.

The hosts, who can be backed at 4.84/1 if you like chucking money away, scored three times during the aforementioned five straight Champions League home defeats, but they conceded on 17 occasions.

Indeed, no winning away team in a group stage match at the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium has managed to score less than three goals since AC Milan won 1-0 there in 2006.

There really are no excuses for the Gunners against a side who are now winless in 10 European matches (won seven, drawn three) dating back to November 2012. An away win looks a safe investment.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

All of that points to the Overs being the way to go at 1.84/5, with Arsenal's fondness for conceding daft goals and Anderlecht's promising young Serbian forward Aleksandar Mitrovic - the guy who ripped down the Albanian flag the other day - also going into the positives column.

The only way you could see Under 2.5 Goals coming in at 2.166/5 was if Arsenal tightened up at the back and Welbeck and Sanchez both had off days upfront, the exact reverse of what has been happening in recent fixtures for Wenger's side.

There should be goals in Brussels, and those who understandably aren't as confident in the Gunners winning are probably right to just focus their attention here, with Both Teams To Score at 1.728/11.

Half Time - Arsenal

We keep coming back to them, but those five straight Champions League home defeats which featured Anderlecht conceding 17 goals really are a thing of beauty. It's what all punting philosophies on the game should be based around.

They trailed at the break in three of them and if Arsenal can go ahead early on in Brussels - where Borussia Dortmund's Ciro Immobile scored after three minutes three weeks ago - then those numbers really should be added to.

Six of Arsenal's last nine Champions League wins featured a first half goal, and they should be able to get on the front foot and establish a lead at the break at a price of 2.3411/8.

Recommended Bet
Back Arsenal to be ahead at HT @ 2.3411/8

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