BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Home challenge looks strong in Bercy

Gasquet can lead a French charge in Bercy

We've reached the final week of the main ATP World Tour season and as ever tennis expert Sean Calvert is on the hunt for outright value - this week in Paris at the BNP Paribas Masters...

The final Masters 1000 tournament of the 2014 season begins on Monday and indeed the BNP Paribas Masters is last main tour event of the year.

And hopefully it will go a little better than last week, where I suffered the ignominy of both of my bets falling in round one in Valencia, which was painful to say the least.

Typically, my one suggestion in Basel, which was David Goffin, made the final as a 25.024/1 shot, so I chose the wrong bets last week, unfortunately.

This Bercy event tends to offer the punter some late-season value though, with a few peculiar results tending to occur here in recent years.

That might not be the case this time around though, as the gap between Bercy and the World Tour Finals is now a fortnight, rather than just the one.

It still looks wide open though, with Rafa Nadal out for the season and Marin Cilic and Ernests Gulbis also not here.

World number one Novak Djokovic is in Bercy, but with a brand new baby son on his mind he might be understandably distracted at a venue where he was beaten by Sam Querrey in 2012.

In fairness to Nole he did come back and win it last year, but none of the leading contenders have fabulous records here, which is almost certainly due to fatigue and the looming presence of the tour finals.

It's played on the same stodgy indoor surface as the World Tour Finals and uses the same balls, which is all very nice for eight of the field anyway.

Conditions tend to vary at the Palais Omnisports between the Centre Court and outside courts, with the main court generally being slower in recent years.

The draw has, once again, proved to be very lopsided, with a whole host of talent lumped together in the top half, leaving the bottom half wide open.

Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are all in there, as well as Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Vasek Pospisil, John Isner, Tommy Robredo and David Goffin.

That's a tough half and contrast that with the bottom half, which contains Tomas Berdych, Feli Lopez, Kevin Anderson, Fabio Fognini, Richard Gasquet, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic and Roger Federer and it adds up to a great chance for the Swiss.

Wawrinka is miles off form, while Raonic was awful in Basel and looks all but done for the season after his illness in Tokyo, but he'll still be trying for a spot in London.

Lopez looks done as well, while Fognini has been finished for the season for months now, but Berdych and Gasquet could be interesting.

Gasquet hasn't played since a feeble showing in Shanghai, where he was heavily beaten by Berdych and has since withdrawn from Moscow and Basel, but he should be fit and ready to play this week in preparation for the Davis Cup final.

Indeed, the Gasman was in great form in Davis Cup prior to the Asian swing when he put Berdych to the sword on clay and he played well here last year before running into nemesis Nadal in the last eight.

If he's injury-free he should be well rested and 8079/1 looks like it could be decent value in a half with plenty of doubts about the shorter priced runners.

Berdych was a surprising round one loser to Pablo Andujar last week and I suspect that it's too slow for him here, as when he won it way back in 2005 it was much quicker and around 15.014/1 is a little short for me on the Czech.

Federer is the obvious choice, but after a run to the title in Basel last week and London and the Davis Cup final to come will he really put it in here at a tournament he's made the final in only once in 10 attempts?

So, Gasquet for me as a huge-priced shot in the bottom half and the minefield of the top half might well pay dividends to have a think about backing Monfils at a whopping 10099/1.

Djokovic could well be stunned first up by Kohlschreiber if the German is in the mood and manages to hold his nerve - unlikely, I know, but possible - and Lamonf could be a great priced alternative to 3.02/1 jolly Djokovic.

Monfils was in rare form at the US Open before injury struck yet again afterwards in Metz and after six weeks off he'll want matches ahead of the Davis Cup final and where better to get court time than the city of his birth?

He's twice made the final here in the past and there are serious doubts about the major players in the top half too.

Murray and Ferrer will surely be exhausted in what will be their sixth straight week on tour and are worth opposing, while Goffin also looks exhausted; Tsonga is reportedly struggling with tendonitis in his forearm; and Isner rarely does well away from the US and surely it's too slow for him here anyway.

Dimitrov looks to be struggling with fitness at the moment and also looks like he's hit the wall for the year, but Simon might turn up this week after failing to last in disastrous style and 8079/1 isn't a bad price on Gillou, who made the semis here two years ago.

I also wouldn't count out Julien Benneteau from going on another Masters 1000 level run here after making the quarters and semis in his last two tournaments at this level.

Benny has had his moments here over the years, beating the likes of Federer and Raonic and at 200199/1 he's no hopeless chance and could be a decent back-to-lay in what looks a chance for the French players to shine ahead of Davis Cup.

Recommended back to lay portfolio

Back Gasquet @ 80.079/1
Back Monfils @ 100.099/1
Back Simon @ 80.079/1