понедельник, 27 октября 2014 г.

Which of the promoted three will survive in the EPL?

Leonardo Ulloa has been a great buy for Leicester City so far

We are ticking towards November and Alex Johnson decides to have a look at how the three promoted clubs are doing.

Many teams promoted to the Premier League struggle to survive. How will Leicester, Burnley and QPR fare in the top flight?

It is almost an accepted fact in football circles that the teams promoted to the Premier League will all struggle to survive and stay in the top division. However, the figures do not exactly back this.

In the last five years, of the 15 teams that have been promoted to the Premier League, only four have gone straight back down the following season. The last two years have seen two of the promoted three survive. Cardiff City were relegated back to the Championship in May after just a single campaign in the top flight, but the two promoted with them; Hull City and Crystal Palace, both survived with some comfort.

The season before, it was again the team who finished first in the Championship, Reading, who lasted a single year with Southampton and West Ham, promoted alongside them, staying up. So, what are the prospects of the three teams who came up last season? Will all or any of them survive in the Premier League?

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Leicester City

The champions in the last two years, Cardiff and Reading, may have both gone straight back down again, but Leicester look well placed to buck that trend and are possibly the best equipped of the three promoted clubs to prosper in the top league.

They stormed to the Championship title last season, with 102 points, nine ahead of Burnley, losing only six games all season, with a goal difference of plus 40.

The previous season, they reached the play-offs but lost out in the semi-finals to Watford. They had a penalty in the final minute of the second leg which would have taken them to Wembley but missed it and Watford went down the other end and scored.

Some boards may have taken immediate action following this disappointment, but Leicester persevered with manager Nigel Pearson and were rewarded last season. Pearson had been manager at the club between 2008 and 2010 but left for a short spell in charge of Hull. He was persuaded back in 2011 and has built the team steadily in that time, with the stability he provides being key to the club's recent success.

They only conceded 43 goals last season, less than a goal a game and therefore the defence was already quite sound. In attack, David Nugent has been a mainstay of the side, though there were doubts before the season began as to whether he and others would score enough goals. Therefore, the main business for Pearson in the transfer market was to sign another striker and he bought in Leonardo Ulloa from Brighton for a club record 8m.

It is always a risk buying a player without any previous Premier League experience, however Pearson has bought well and Ulloa has scored five of the Foxes 11 goals so far this season, earning him a nomination for the Barclays Premier League player of the month award.

He has adapted well to life in the Premier League but so have the rest of the team. They earned a creditable draw with Everton on the opening day of the season, held Arsenal at home and have won two of their eight games so far; a 1-0 win away at Stoke was followed by their result of the season so far, a 5-3 victory over Manchester United.

United led 2-0 and then 3-1 but Leicester fought back, earning two penalties to record a historic win. Ulloa scored twice in that game and another player on the scoresheet, Jamie Vardy, was making his first Premier League start, after having been playing in non-league football only three years ago.

Though City have struggled in the last few games, losing to Crystal Palace and Newcastle, of the three promoted clubs they look to have enough to survive longer in the top flight. With Pearson in charge they also have a manager who will ensure that the team keep their feet on the ground, however their season progresses.

Burnley

Burnley were the surprise package in the Championship last season. With one of the smallest budgets in the league, few expected them to stay in the promotion race. However, with 93 points, well ahead of Derby in third, they fully earned their eventual promotion.

Their success was built once again on a successful defence. They conceded just 37, the lowest in the league and had goals in the team courtesy of a front two of Danny Ings and Sam Vokes.

The pair scored 47 goals between them last season but the Lancashire club were dealt some bad luck when Vokes suffered knee ligament damage in March. Before the new season began manager Sean Dyche brought in Lukas Jutkiewicz and then George Boyd to try and get more of an attacking threat but they have still struggled to score in the league this season,.

After eight games they sit second bottom on just four points, having so far, failed to win a Premier League game. They have only scored four goals and though they performed creditably in holding Manchester United to a draw earlier in the season, recent results have included a 4-0 defeat at West Brom and a 3-1 home defeat by West Ham.

It is still early in the season but there will have to be a vast improvement for Burnley to survive in the Premier League for another year. Everton and Arsenal are difficult opponents in their next two fixtures but, Burnley then face Hull, Stoke and Aston Villa. If, after that run of fixtures, they are still bottom of the table, then a return to the Championship becomes even more likely.

The return of Vokes before the end of the year will be a welcome addition to the team, but Dyche will hope to have several more points on the board before his return if Burnley are to have any hope of survival.

QPR

QPR have a vastly experienced manager in Harry Redknapp, but they have also found the step up difficult so far. Rangers were considered lucky to win promotion. They prevailed in the play-off final against Derby, a late Bobby Zamora goal separating the sides, despite Rangers having been outplayed for large parts of the game.

Redknapp has bought in several new additions in the transfer window, including a new central defensive partnership of Steven Caulker and Rio Ferdinand. However, both have struggled in their new team, especially the former Manchester United star who was to blame for Hull's goal in the opening day defeat. As a team, they have conceded too many in the first few games of the season.

So far 18 have gone in, in their eight games so far and Rangers sit bottom of the league on four points. Their goal difference is already -12 and, as with Burnley, their form will need to improve dramatically if they are to survive.

They have suffered 4-0 defeats at both Tottenham and Manchester United, their solitary win so far being at home to Sunderland.

Their most recent game did see an improvement. They dominated a poor Liverpool side at Loftus Road but, for all their pressure, failed to make it count. In a crazy final few minutes they equalised twice, but through misfortune including two own goals, lost the game 3-2.

It will not get any easier for Redknapp and his team with Chelsea and Manchester City as two of their next three opponents. Before then they face Aston Villa at home and desperately need a win from that game to give themselves hope of climbing the table.

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