League Two Betting: York to break home jinx

Maybe this lot could start a new show - Can't Score, Won't Score

York are the only football league team without a home win. Ian Lamont outlines why can they can achieve it against Mansfield even if, like Plymouth, it will be a tight affair...

York 2.111/10 v Mansfield 4.1n/a; the draw 3.55/2

I wonder if TV execs looking for the latest reality hit will ever invent a programme called 'Can't score, Won't score'? - Can't cook, Won't cook, but with footballers.

If they ever think of it, they ought to head to Bootham Crescent to find some candidates. York have scored twice in four games and their opponents just once.

Both are pretty close to the top of the 'fail to score' charts - Mansfield on six games and their hosts on seven (as are Portsmouth).

Mansfield have scored in just three away games, garnering four points, while York have four 0-0 draws - their only clean sheets - with three of them at home. Opta state they are the only team in the league yet to register a home win.

So what can new boss Russ Wilcox do in his third game in charge of the Minstermen? The fact they have a new manager to impress seems their only saving grace and will, on this occasion, save them from a 0-0 prediction here. But even so it is a tight call not to be tempted by the 9.08/1 exact score on offer.

At least they scored at Morecambe. And what is more they nearly won. Recalled Jake Hyde seemed to form a good partnership with Bristol Rovers loanee Ryan Brunt apparently after training together for just 10 minutes, enough to convince the boss their partnership could work against Morecambe. Wilcox believes York have the quality to move up the division, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

Recommended Bet
Back York @ 2.1

Southend 2.77/4 v Bury 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5

When decent teams get thumped, they usually barricade the doors next time out. There is an equal and opposite reaction, as Newton might say. 

But in this case the total goals in the match - even if Bury do tighten up after a 5-0 thrashing by Shrewsbury - could still well be over 2.5.

David Flitcroft knows his squad have to start pulling their socks up away from home if they are to maintain their promotion push, but has just 16 fit outfielders at his disposal. Flitcroft even said he felt the disaster at Greenhous Meadow was coming. He feels they played decently in defeat at in-form Exeter, began to unravel in a 3-2 defeat at AFC Wimbledon and then did precisely that against the Shrews.

A change of formation, approach and tactics has been promised, even with the limitations of a squad currently short of Clive Platt (hamstring) and Daniel Nardiello (groin).

Defender Nathan Cameron, 22, might be highly rated by the club and might have been distracted on Tuesday by the attentions of various Championship clubs in his agent's ear.

A thrashing will shake the Shakers out of their away malaise. They cannot be a bad team, being in the top three, but that away inconsistency sums up the nature of the division.

Southend have been through all the emotions under Phil Brown - four straight wins have been followed by four winless games emphasise Opta. 

Their problems have been at the other end to Bury's - scoring. Just one goal in their past four games will be giving the manager kittens. He seems to have enough striking talent at his disposal in Shaquile Coulthirst, Barry Corr, Lee Barnard and others. But they are not performing. They owe their manager a performance, as do Bury, so the value is seeking plenty of goals.

Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.35/4

Luton 2.35/4 v Northampton 3.45n/a; the draw 3.55/2

I was thinking of tipping Wycombe, but they are absolutely no value at 1.75/7 and if it is one thing we should learn in League Two, backing the obvious teams odds-on at home will soon break the bank. The layers love the 'bankers' lined up in punters' accumulators, knowing full well they won't be paying out.

Luton, tipped at 2.35/4 away from home last week, are worth sticking with at the same price to win at home, even against a Northampton side who are prospering despite a string of injuries. As one analyst pointed out this week, the absences have started to bite. Zander Diamond and Marc Richards, while young Ivan Toney, 18, up front surely needs a rest.

Luton, meanwhile, have eschewed their relatively slow start to the season by taking 22 points from a possible 24. Mark Cullen exemplifies the team's confidence, having netted a hat-trick against Dagenham, making it five goals in three games and taking his tally to eight this season.

Hold onto your hats - the Hatters could be top by Saturday tea time. 

Recommended Bet
Back Luton @ 2.35/4

Plymouth 2.588/5 v Cheltenham 3.211/5; the draw 3.412/5

Terry Gornell played in the opening five games for Cheltenham this season, didn't score and was then left out. That coinciding with the Robins going on an eight-game winless streak and, whether boss Mark Yates read it as a coincidence or not, he decided to return the striker to the starting line-up.

He scored twice.

During those games not in the team, the forward had gone to the manager to request being put on the transfer list and, a couple of days after telling Gornell he would start against Northampton, the manager discovered a voicemail with an enquiry about Gornell's availability.

That brace against the Cobblers made Yates ponder if the team had missed the striker more than he had thought - did he, for example, offer the team a lot more than just goals? Whatever he gives them, they have now won twice in a row.

Home Park will not be an easy place to find the net. Plymouth have not conceded in four games, home or away, have let in one goal in six games including winning their last three at home to nil. Opta say that 22 goals in their games this season is less than in any other team's results. 

At the other end, they also have one of division's top marksmen, Reuben Reid, whose five goals put him on track to better last season's 17, when he was League Two's second highest scorer. 

Lewis Alessandra into that mix as Plymouth try to share the burden and they could finally start climbing back up the leagues.

This is a real test for both teams but Cheltenham's record of conceding at least one goal in their past eight matches gives Plymouth the edge.

Recommended Bet
Back Plymouth @ 2.588/5

P/L 2014-15

+2.29pt