Chelsea v NK Maribor: Blues to be denied a clean sheet

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea haven't overindulged in clean sheets

Michael Lintorn expects Chelsea to vindicate heavy favouritism against NK Maribor, but suspects that they will concede...

Chelsea v NK Maribor
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on ITV

Match Odds: Chelsea 1.171/6, NK Maribor 25.024/1, The Draw 8.88/1

At least once every two years, Chelsea take it upon themselves to teach some Champions League underlings a lesson in the group stage at Stamford Bridge.

In 2012, Nordsjaelland were victims of a 1-6 beating; in 2011, Genk were sent back to Belgium with their point and goals-for columns no healthier but the goals-against tally increased by five; in 2010, Spartak Moscow lost 1-4 courtesy of a rare Branislav Ivanovic brace. In 2009, it was Atletico Madrid bruised by a 0-4 battering, while Bordeaux were given the same scoreline to whine about in 2008.

After skipping their opportunity in 2013 as Jose Mourinho's work in progress made clean-sheet acquisition their priority, this writer has a hunch that - regardless of Diego Costa's absence - this will be the fixture in which they opt to flex their muscles.

The stats aren't too supportive though. NK Maribor conceded four goals in just one of their 18 prior Champions League away games, leaked three on a mere two occasions and were breached twice in only six ties. Admittedly, the majority were qualifiers against sides nowhere near Chelsea's level.

However, it is enough to encourage a little caution and focus attention on bets which are more statistically sound...

Chelsea clean sheet? No

NK Maribor have netted in each of their past seven Champions League clashes against incrementally more challenging opponents - Zrinjski, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Celtic, Sporting Lisbon and Schalke - and have fired just two blanks in their 13 road trips in the competition.

As impressive as Chelsea have been to date this season, their clean-sheet count is a mediocre three in their most recent nine matches, with Burnley, Bolton and Crystal Palace among the unremarkable teams to have spotted a route through their defence.

Half Time Score

The Blues have led 1-0 at the break in five of their last seven Champions League home outings, while in a further three of the latest eight, they were on course for that scoreline on 41 minutes only for a strike in the final four minutes of the first half to alter the half-time result.

The advice therefore is to back the 1-0 45-minute outcome before kick-off and be ready to Cash Out before the closing 240 seconds of normal time if the punt is set to deliver but you fear a late sting.

Best Bet: Back Chelsea not to keep a clean sheet @ 2.447/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back Chelsea to lead 1-0 at half time @ 3.3512/5

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