Against All Odds: Luxemburgo's troops to bang in the goals

Net to bulge with Flamengo in town

The goals are set to flow when Flamengo visit Figueirense according to Paul Robinson and here is why...

Figueirense v Flamengo
Thursday October 9, 02:00 BST

Figueirense are 11th in the Campeonato having taken 32 points from their 26 fixtures to date. That has to be considered a decent return for a club who were only promoted as the fourth place finishers in Serie B last year. They still have to be careful though, there is only a five point gap between themselves and the relegation zone, but if they continue as they are, they'll be absolutely fine.

We aren't overly fussed about the actual match result tonight however as it's the goal statistics that have caught our eye. With 24 scored and 35 conceded, their matches are averaging 2.27 goals each time. While only nine of their 26 outings have resulted in three or more being scored, three of their last six have gone over 2.5 and that includes a pair of 3-1 scorelines.

The main reason for this selection is the statistics of opponents, Flamengo, though. After beginning the season in miserable fashion, Vanderlei Luxemburgo rode in on his white horse and dragged the Brazilian heavyweights up the table to 13th.

The former Real Madrid boss got them scoring goals again and 'Big Mengo's' fixtures for the year are now averaging 2.12 goals per 90 minutes.  That figure shoots up to 2.38 if we concentrate on their away games only under his rein and their last five scorelines on the road have been 1-2, 1-0, 2-2, 2-2 and 2-1.

I would price this match up at around even money the pair for over and under 2.5, so with the latter trading as low as 1.625/8, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Figueirense v Flamengo @ 1.625/8

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 270 pts
Returned: 287.01 pts
P/L: + 17.01 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)